I took a loss in today's index shorts — moving back to small sized.

BlackRock's Rieder is saying "this is the best investment environment ever."

I just got off the phone with Coops who says, "we are clearly in a bubble."

Take your position, pick your poison. I have taken mine.

Wolf Street howls about the Fed's nightmare: 

"Fed’s Nightmare: CPI Inflation in Core Services Worst in 6 Months, Pushing Core CPI to Worst in 6 Months. Some Goods Prices Fell, Others Rose"

I had CNBC's "Halftime Report" on today and I listened to a panelist (praise by individual, criticize by category — so no names!) who confidently added AVGO, NVDA and GS to his portfolio this afternoon.

Please look at the price charts of those companies before you read further!

While I recognize that my market view has been half baked for quite a while and having been mentored at Putnam by one of the great momentum traders in history ("The Chief") — I simply can't fathom the downside versus upside (and the absence of a margin of safety) in these buys.

While my general concerns continue to be realized — most notably: slowing economic growth, prickly inflation (seen in this morning's CPI report) and ever higher valuations — this has obviously not translated into a lower market.

Every day it grows clearer that momentum is a force unto itself.

It is terribly frustrating as I try to operate within the framework of a market that is disinterested in negatives and is continuing to be bought on every dip.

Despite that frustration I will not chase under any condition and compromise my investment process.

I will buy value (as I recently did with UNH and PSKY) but I will never abandon the notion of risk/reward.

I have covered my NVDA short for a small gain and my PLTR short for a small loss today.

I thought we might be witnessing a blow off to the upside today.

Instead it appears we are in a buying panic.

A very worthwhile read from the comments section, courtesy of Tech Nova:

IMPORTANT PERSONAL MESSAGE

Part 1.

I don’t want to bury the lead so let me start by saying that I am not going anywhere. So please hold back eulogies or in memoriams.

I came to this blog years ago, when I heard a gentleman named Doug Kass, call into to a television program in the very heart of the Financial Crisis, and say that on that very day, the market had hit a bottom. Not just a bottom, but a generational bottom. I remember the crackling sound of that call as if it was yesterday.

The market bottomed on that day, and never looked back.

Since those days, it has been my absolute pleasure to log in every day, and start my morning tea with a fresh dose of the hardest working man in the business. There are few people out there that work harder, possess more integrity, and live by a better example than our fearless leader Dougie Fresh.

I started off as a lurker here, like most, and eventually grew to participate more actively and participate in the occasional joust with other members. It has been both fun and lucrative.

As the years went by, my interest in Crypto kept growing. After making my first investment 10 years ago, I slowly kept increasing my positions with every marker of reduced RISK I perceived to be occurring in the Crypto space, especially as it concerned BTC. This has led me to my very large allocation today.

When I started posting my Crypto trades, I was initially met with quite a bit of resistance and annoyance. Most subscribers on this blog are in the upper age bracket, and their experiences while wide ranging, still tend to fall within the standard capital markets we have lived in for the past 200 years. The fact that Dougie avoids Crypto like rat poison also made trying to convert some folks to my camp a rather tricky task.

In the summer of 2022, I posted here that I moved ½ of my wife’s IRA account into GBTC at $12/share. (The GreyScale Bitcoin Trust). This prompted Dougie to offer the recommendation of a good divorce lawyer. While I took the jab in good fun, I am happy to report that I have not rebalanced her portfolio and that now her shares are trading at $91.50/share.

I still get complaints, but such is life.

2024, was a transformative year for me and my family. When BTC went from $38,000 to over $110,000 my net worth almost tripled. Long gone are the early days where I would have to worry whether my bank account was going to be lower than my minimum monthly service fees. I passed a mile marker whereby I could let my foot off the throttle and step out and enjoy the roses for a bit. I had promised my wife less computer time should this ever happen, though when I made that promise, I admittedly did not know it would happen so quickly. 

I wrote a post here, of my intent to scale back significantly. And I initially did so.

Two things brought me back to my keyboard.

Part 2.

The first was my PIVOT Thesis, that I had written over the Christmas Holidays. I was both over-joyed by my call of “BTC = $100,000 by end of year 2024” coming through, and the fact that so many here had participated in the ascent and made money, and at the same time, deeply perturbed by the conclusions of my PIVOT Thesis.

This was only my 3rd Thesis ever. As I mentioned here before, my first one was trying to convince my first employer (Commercial Real Estate company) to let me buy all 500 Domain Names of the S&P 500 constituents for $110 per name. I made what I thought was a strong case. I was laughed out of the room.

My second thesis was BTC. I read Satoshi’s White Paper 10 years ago and was absolutely floored by how flawless the idea was. I was hooked, and tried to get all my family and friends to invest. Most of them passed. My brother still calls BTC a SCAM.

My third and most likely last one, is the PIVOT. It centers around the PIVOT that Americans made this past November. Away from everything we had known, believed in, aspired to, towards something entirely different that at its core was antithetical to all the things we held true as Americans. The natural conclusions of this paper were not pretty. Since I am a generally optimistic person, I have refrained from releasing it. But I also could not just sit by idly and just watch it happen. I decided to meticulously track Trump’s systematic dismantling of our democratic systems and norms, with no other initial plan then to post markers on Dougie’s blog as I saw them come.

The second thing that drew me back permanently was the Trump Grift during Inauguration. Trump billed himself as the “Crypto President”. 52 million Americans owned Crypto on November of 2024, and a large portion of those owners were young Men, aged 18 – 29, African American and Latino. They set aside all their concerns, and like most single issue voters, put all their hopes and faith into Donald Trump, the Crypto Candidate. On Trump’s first DAY in office, he performed a massive rug pull by releasing his $TRUMP and $MELANIA shitcoins on SOLANA, bagging millions in profits, tanking both his Coins, and the SOLANA Network, and leaving his voters destitute and holding the bag.

Part 3.

In a normal world, this would have launched an SEC investigation and yielded many guilty parties and jail sentences. Donnie being the principal defendant. But not after THE PIVOT.

To me, this represented a double opportunity.

The recognition of how brazenly Trump was planning to enrich himself, and the fact that he was mainly going to use Crypto Rails to do so, gave me both an unexpected Crypto market edge to profit alongside his grift, and the opportunity to point out the grift at every turn to those who were less Crypto savvy.

While I felt driven by a new sense of purpose, two obstacles stood in my way:

1) A god-awful platform in the form of OpenWeb

2) The moral quandary of making political statements, on a non-political Blog.

What many here don’t know, is that for the past 6 months I have been in communication with Jason and his Team at TheStreet.com. Our interactions were frank, collaborative, honest and always in good spirit. I could not speak more highly of Jason and some of the Executive Team I had a chance to speak with.

The idea was to perhaps bring me on as a columnist with my own corner. I could post my missives, my trades, and generally move my writings from the comments section to the column section. On the outset of our conversations, this seemed like a good idea, that I believe all parties tried in good faith to accomplish.

For me, there are several deep pain points about OpenWeb that make it entirely untenable.

1) Long Form

I like writing Long Form Missives, and peppering them with Graphs, Charts, links, images, etc…

On the Blog, I would have to break them up into sometimes 12 or 15 parts. The parts would only allow 1 link each, some parts would occasionally disappear on their own, some would appear in the incorrect order, and some would just refuse to post altogether.

I cannot explain how bloody taxing it is to try to share something with the community for FREE, only to see it pay off by an infuriating exercise of Parts WACK-A-MOLE.

Some subs would ping me 4 days after a missive was up asking if I was still planning on posting Part 2, when I had already posted all 8 Parts.

2) Discussion

When I read a new idea, or thought. There is always that first knee jerk reaction of agreeing or disagreeing. But I find personally, that I often have a slightly differing opinion 2 or 3 days later. On this Blog, when someone posts something, you have to immediately answer, or you will simply lose access to that piece. To me, this does not foster proper thought and depth. You need to allow people to walk away. Then come back to something with clearer minds before responding in support or against something. This Blog simply does not allow for that.

3) Accountability

Since my very first Trade post on this Blog, I have always formatted my posts like this :

“TICKER : …..”

I did this with the express intent of making my trades easy to search. You could click on my user, and type the Ticker in the Search bar, and you could see my entries and my exit on a name.

OpenWeb just decimated all Search.

Part 4.

To me, there is nothing more important when trading, then to properly journal your trades. It is the only way to learn and the only way to grow. You learn from your wins, but you REALLY learn from your losses. You cannot bury them. You need to keep them front and center.

This Blog is like disappearing SNAP Chats posts. You post something, then 48 hours later I get hit with “TN – are you in XYZ?”, “What is your cost basis?”, “Did you sell already?”

I don’t blame subs for asking, but it is nonetheless tiring to post all my entries and exits only to make them less findable than the Epstein Files.

Jason told me that they are planning on trying to move away from OpenWeb, but that process has been sluggish at best, so my hopes for solving obstacle 1) was not looking hopeful.

Then came obstacle 2.

As I have written since the start of the year, after trading Equities for over 30 years, I have found I have lost interest in that asset class. To me, the market has changed drastically. When you are trading equities, you are trading against Citadel, Algos, AI, AI Swarm Bots, and now…. Donald J. Trump.

The Market now, moves up, down, sideways, solely on the mad pronouncements of our new Emperor. There is so much front running and manipulation right now, that Trump has simply given up on trying to hide it. Massive SPY PUTs, 3 hours ahead of a ridiculous Tariff Tweet, AAPL shares moving 4% up in one day, on the announcement of massive Tariffs on electronic imports from China where they make all their wares? Oh.. wait…. On Saturday a tweet goes out letting us know that AAPL is exempt from the Executive Order.

HedgEye says it best here:

Part 5.

To me, you cannot trade this Market. You have to trade Trump’s personal interests and grifts in order to outperform in this market. My “BIAS” against Trump, and my focus on the same Crypto Rails he is using to self-enrich is so far leading to my best yearly returns in my entire career.

In discussions with Jason, I found out that TheStreet.com does not really have a mandate to cover Crypto. It was set up as a Wall Street outlet, and as such maintains a certain formality, and scope that makes it better suited for a more traditional and conservative type of approach. It is also perhaps why the readership seems to lean so heavily Republican.

I completely understand that. It is not in my purview to change the mission of TheStreet.com and force them to cover Crypto, nor is it my right to force people to realize that we are headed away from our beloved Democracy, straight into an Authoritarian Autocracy.

While they were very interested in my more MATH & ECON based approach to Crypto versus most Twitter Crypto experts that simply tell you to YOLO and go all in until it MOONS, it just didn’t seem like we could wrap up the entire package into an outlet that would match what I am looking to do moving forward.

A few weeks ago, I took the entire week off work to go to downtown LA, and see for myself what was happening. I was looking to cut through the Gaslighting, the hyperbole, and the 3rd party accounts. This was prompted by an ICE RAID in my neighborhood, where one of the kindest most gentlest of men, was brutally thrown to the ground and arrested in front of his children, for doing a job he has done so well for the past 25 years.

I spoke to lawyers, activist, city officials, police officers, and I witnessed raids myself. What I saw was so deeply un-American that I lost sleep over it for several days. The mandate of Project 2025 to turn America into a “White Christian Nationalist” Country is not a lofty goal out in the distance. It is in the deeper stages of full deployment. ICE, thanks to the Deficit Balooning Bill is now the largest Federally Funded Enforcement agency in America. I will not go into detail in this writing other than to say this:

I have never seen more clearly in my life. I now realize that the money I made to secure my family will not suffice. Many innocent Americans are going to need help with what lies ahead. And doing so will require resources that many do not have and do not have the capacity to gather. You may have noticed a shift in my trading style recently. I have moved to High RISK, and more Aggressive Trading. I have shifted between GLD and ETH, then back to GLD, then back to ETH, using pretty aggressive options leverage. And so far, it has all worked. I am aiming for a 400% return in 2025. That is my current target and if Crypto plays out as I think it will, I may be able to exceed that bar.

I now understand the purpose of my PIVOT THESIS paper, and plan on completing it over the next several weeks, with an eye towards navigating what happens next.

In summary:

I clearly want to be writing more about Crypto.

I clearly want to be writing more about preserving our Democratic Union.

I clearly want to keep exposing Trump’s corruption and grift as an antidote to the massive amount of gaslighting that is coming from the White House.

So trying to force a Square into the Round Peg that is OpenWeb on Dougie’s blog is not going to work for me.

As has always been my practice. When I don’t find a model that fits, I just make one myself.

Skeptcl first recommended just moving to Discord. While I find it infinitely more usable then OpenWeb, it doesn’t really address my core needs.

Posts are character limited, you can only attach 1 pic and only to the top of the post, and when it comes to going back in time, the multi-threading nature of Discord is really messy. It is a really GREAT real-time ACTIVE discussion platform, but a rather poor host for the type of writing I plan on doing.

Part 6.

He also recommended Substack.

After spending the past 4 months playing with it, while it has some bizarrely glaring flaws, it does seem to check most of the boxes. I don’t have any social media (Facebook, Instagram, SNAP, etc…) with the exception of a Twitter/X account (@TechNova_Inc) that I really only maintain to follow a bunch of “Crypto Twitter Experts” to maintain a gauge of what consensus is, so that I can bet against it. So this foray into Substack, with subscribers, and posts, and comments, etc… is rather foreign to me.

That being said, I sought the assistance of a friend who handles this for a living for all sorts of writers and influencers and she guided me through the set up and framework after I gave her my list of Goals.

1) I want to create an environment, where all my evergreen missives are clearly catalogued by date and title, and where any sub can go and just read any one of them at any time, preferably while pooping and reading on an iPad, and post comments or thoughts regardless of when they happen.

2) I want to create an environment where I can post my Trades, set-ups, Technical Analysis, and other Market Prescient posts that get delivered automatically via email notification and can be easily read on any device.

3) I want to create two levels of engagement. One, for lurkers who would simply like to read some of my musings and check in every once in a while, and one for more active participants (Founding Members) that will be checking in often, would like to comment, ask questions, and participate in Chat threads and in a monthly LIVE AMA/Q&A process.

4) I want to create a landing spot that will host my PIVOT THESIS, and perhaps even turn it into a living document, by adding chapters as we progress further into this transformation.

With Jason’s help, and thanks to the fact that I had to write many of my missives on Microsoft Word before cutting them up and pasting them into the Blog (like this one), I was able to scrape my writings from all of 2024 and re-create them with the same time stamps as the blog but on Substack. I was not able to pull all my trades. I simply had too many of them, and they were all garbled in the OpenWeb database. So I mainly rebuilt all the Missives I could find, and as many of the Trade Posts that I could find (probably 20% in total).

This is all hosted at: www.thepivot.info

Let me explain the membership tiers and the WHY of them. I was told not to leave it open to Free Subscription. Apparently, you get immediately swarmed by Russian bots. But in deference to my early days as a totally broke person I asked what the minimum Pay Sub should be for lurkers who want to read and not participate, and I was told $19/month. I was told it would be high enough to keep out bots and trolls, but low enough to equate to ordering 2 fully dressed Starbucks Macchiato Frappuccinos that are loaded with sugar and terrible for your health every month. Actually doing your waistline a favor there.

For those that want to participate more actively. There is a Founding Member subscription. That will give you access to Comments, Chat Threads, and something I want to try, which is doing a 60 minute LIVE Chat/AMA session every month on topics chosen by vote of the Subs. I am thinking of maybe using Twitter Spaces as the platform, but am open to other platforms. Still investigating. But I thought it may be a cool way to build community and talk more in depth about topics that Founders feel passionate about. This membership is priced at $60/month. (For some weird reason, Substack only allows Annual Billing for this membership and not monthly billing. We reached out to support, and they said only 1 tier can support Monthly. Weird shortcoming).

I am hoping you can see that I am not doing this for the money.

Part 7.

I am expecting that perhaps 10 to 20 people will maybe sign up to this Stack. You have seen the types of trades I have pulled off over the past several years, even if this Substack is super popular and gets 100 subs, the amounts charged will not move the needle and most likely not even cover the costs of the person I hired to manage the Stack. I am mainly charging to create “conscious engagement”. When something is free, you treat it with less care and regard then when something is not. Even if the price is de minimis.

But to make sure you don’t sign up just because you want to read my old Missives (I have been getting many requests for some of the oldies), I am going to do this. Anyone who subscribes to the stack within the next 2 days, I will automatically issue a FREE 7 day Trial.

(I will actually be traveling for Business most likely until the end of the week. So I don’t expect to be posting much new material until I return, unless something major happens. But my Stack manager will be on the look-out for sign-ups making sure everyone gets a 7 day Free Trial).

So you don’t even have to spare your Frappuccino. Feel free to scrape all the data, download all the Missives, do whatever you want. I am not looking to build this based on my past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns anyway, I am more interested in building this as a future looking environment that will foster dialogue, ideas and growth, based on DATA, SCIENCE, FACT and COMMON GROUND.

I am not looking for an echo chamber, and for you to agree with everything I write, but I will also not really be kind to Gaslighting, Conspiracy and Whataboutisms. This is a time for some advanced thinking of all kinds and all nature. We should be respectful of all ideas, but we should also allow for deep scrutiny of those ideas and the foundations behind them.

I want to finish by making sure something is very clear.

I am not leaving Dougie’s blog. I will be here for as long as Dougie is willing to grace us with his writing. I will be posting comments, answering questions when I can, and of course reminding you NOT TO TALK ABOUT EPSTEIN!

What I will no longer be doing here is posting Missives, Long Form Detailed explanations on Trades, Technical Analysis breakdowns, or anything that requires me to write Multi-Part posts (like this one), or posts with several attachments. Those will all be going on the Stack from now on. (I encourage you to read my latest pieces on SBET+BMNR, and on UXPI, that I only posted there, they will give you an idea of how much easier it is to format things and write there).

Lastly:

I am not a Financial advisor. I do not play one on TV. I do not run other people’s money. I am not a former or present day Hedge Fund Manager. If that is what you are seeking, CONGRATULATIONS, you already found what you are looking for in Dougie’s Blog.

Dougie is one of the best there is.

I am just a guy with a lot of degrees, who started with nothing and now has a few things. I don’t offer Financial Advice, but I am willing to share what I am seeing, doing, acting on, and thinking about.

Hopefully that will be of interest.

(I will repost this again tomorrow, so nobody complains that they missed the 48 hour window because they did not log in today).

EOM.

Vizzini: HE DIDN'T FALL? INCONCEIVABLE!

Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

-"The Princess Bride" (1987)

Well, I never thought I would see the day when inflation coming in at +2.7% (and +0.2% month over month) was considered good.

Even worse, Core CPI, which is what we are meant to care the most about, was hotter than expected at +3.1% (and +0.3% month over month) and is now accelerating again.

Super core was up +3.59% year over year, the hottest since February and also accelerated (up +0.55% month over month). I guess since firing the head of the BLS is no longer an option, the strategy for this one is to whitewash it away and have everyone say this was a good number. This gives the Fed the green light to cut rates (with inflation at still well above targeted levels and accelerating) and party on?

The 10-year and 30-year Treasuries say one thing, the equity markets say another. 

For all the talk about lowering taxes, as best as I can tell, they have been massively raised. Just taxation by another name, and a much more insidious form at that. 

I also think M2 continues to grow and by some measures, financial conditions are the easiest they have ever been. (See Goldman Sachs' financial conditions Index!) 

I have a short research call at 11: 30 a.m.

Back a bit after noon.

phogan

17 minutes ago

I think it's Doug who uses the term "stacked inflation" which is something I always wonder why we don't hear enough about, other than it would be viewed as bad news. But even if current inflation cools, what we've seen over the last few years is still in the system. Cooling inflation offers no relief to the have nots of the country which I continue to think will be a headwind to growth. Just looking at Wolf Richter's comments (thanks for posting DK) on new and used cars as just one item. "The CPI for new vehicles has surged by 21% and the CPI for used vehicles by 34% over the same period. Those price increases caused balances to rise since 2019."

Reply

Dougie Kass

STAFF

fantastic post.

With S&P futures +37 handles I am moving to medium sized short SPY $639.61 and QQQ $576.60.

I added to GRNY $23.90, NVDA $183.57 and PLTR $184 shorts.

Shorted more SPY $638.70 and QQQ $575.67. 

FED SPEAKERS:

10:00 a.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) speaks on "Why the Consumer Matters" before the Health ManagementAcademy, Chicago, IL (Text posted at speech time at richmondfed.org. Audience Q&A expected. No livestream. No separate media Q&A);

10:30 a.m.: Fed Bank ofKansas City President Schmid (Voter) speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the Southern Economic Development Council Annual Conference, Oklahoma City, OK (Embargoed text expected one hour prior to speech time. Livestream available. Audience Q&A expected)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK

Added to Index shorts on the CPI release:

* SPY $638.64

* QQQ $575.68

This is from Lyric Hughes Hale: Xi's Wobble

Dougie Kass

STAFF

Just Now

I have no special view/contribution on today's likely CPI print.

But it could be a lose/lose.

If the number surprises to the downside, most will recognize that the impact of most of the tariffs lies ahead - in upcoming months.

If the number surprises to the upside, markets might be vulnerable at current levels.

Software stocks are being disintermediated by AI (hat tip Divine Ms M):

Former Fan Faves are Gapping Down, While the Indexes Hold Up - TheStreet Pro

Liquidity is a coward,

it disappears at the first sign of trouble.



- Barton Biggs

From Our View, These Are The Best Seven Charts Right Now - Carson Group

Bonus - here are some great links:

A View From the Floor Freedom Capital Markets Weekly Market Letter - August 10th, 2025

Its a Cap-Weighted World The Strazza Letter | Stock Market TV

A Traditional October Drawdown May Lie Ahead We could have the traditional October drawdown this year, says Stephen SuttmeierUS Dollar At the Cross Roads US Dollar at a Crossroads, Gold Primed for Action: Macro Moves to WatchBTC Is A Time Bomb! BTC is a Time Bomb none

RCI Hospitality RICK misses top and bottom line! (Ooops!!)

Note: RCI runs the largest chain of adult entertainment clubs in the US:

* At around 8:30 p.m....

Added to Index shorts:

* SPY $636.35

* QQQ $573.31

* In case it wasn’t clear to you, Grok looks to have suspended itself!

* Or maybe this. It is hallucinating reasons for suspending itself. 

OMG. For now, none of this crap works. Not this, not GPT, not any of it. And all the money that has been thrown at all of it.

The Short Range S&P Oscillator is steady at -1.11% v 1.52%

Wolf Street howls about subprime. Serious Delinquency Rates for Subprime & Prime Auto Loans, their Balances, and their Burden: Our Drunken Sailors in Q2 | Wolf Street