As of 4:24 p.m. ET:

- NYSE volume 8% above its one-month average;

- NASDAQ volume 9% below its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 0.42% to 16.70

Closing Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

On the rally in the Nasdaq (and with S&P cash about 20 handles off the lows) I am adding to my GRNY short.

With S&P cash -30 handles, I am now out of all of my Index (short positions) - common and calls:

* SPY $629.57

* QQQ $565.57

I plan to re-short on strength.

S&P cash is now -30 handles after being +50 handles in premarket.

I am covering my SPY and some of my calls sold today — back to small sized:

* SPY $629.97

* QQQ $566.67

I plan to reshort strength.

From this morning:

Premarket Trading (Part Deux)

I have moved to medium-sized short indices (common):

* (SPY) $638.12

* (QQQ) $572.13

Position: Short SPY common (M) and calls (VS), QQQ common (M) and calls (VS)

By Doug Kass Aug 7, 2025 6:35 AM EDT

My Index Short Move

With S&P cash +40 handles I am adding to my short index calls.

Position: Short SPY common S calls S QQQ common S calls

By Doug Kass Aug 7, 2025 9:40 AM EDT

Occasionally we survey and keep a tab of market views on CNBC to get a sense of the consensus.

This week 44 guests/panelists were herd-like, expressing a bullish outlook while only one was negative.

Res ipsa loquitur.

Here are today's things:

* I added to my index common and calls shorts. Shorted:

SPY $637.34

QQQ $571.49

* Added to GRNY shorts (elder abuse!) at $23.80 and to JOET at $41.31.

* Shorted more PLTR$182.33 and NVDA $182.09

* Initiated a LLY purchase at $640.42 (sold 1/3 at $690).

With the benefit of hindsight, yesterday's weak market breadth coupled with underperformance of financials (at the get go this morning) set the stage for today's Ludacris Day and reversal.

Breadth

Sectors

 % Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Drumroll please...

The triumphant (post birth of her child!) return of Liz Thomas on MRKT CALL with Dan and Guy - today at 11 AM.

Value-added insights, objectivity, depth of analysis, creativity of carefully created investment ideas and they are nice people!

PS.: It's free!!!

Run don't walk.

Let's go to the tape:

Liz Thomas Returns!

Yup (with S&P cash +39 handles) - another stupid call for a reversal to the downside today.

From Peter Boockvar:

BoE cuts but.../Elf Beauty says with tariffs, "you will probably see more companies take pricing"

The Bank of England cut its bank rate by 25 bps as expected to 4% but the vote was tight at 5-4 with 3 wanting no change while one voted for a cut of 50 bps. For context, the June CPI was up by 3.6% y/o/y so REAL rates are barely positive again but the BoE is still forecasting a trend towards 2% with inflation though they said "Overall, the MPC judges that the upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures have moved slightly higher since May." They seem to be growing more worried about this, "Underlying UK GDP growth has remained subdued, consistent with a continued, gradual loosening in the labor market. A margin of slack is judged to have emerged in the economy." And, "Downside domestic and geopolitical risks around economic activity remain, although trade policy uncertainty has diminished somewhat."

With 3 dissents in not wanting to cut rates, it's certainly more unclear when rates get cut again and likely why the 2 yr gilt yield is rising by 5 bps in response. The pound is rallying too.

Intraday 2 yr Gilt yield

On to another batch of mixed economic commentary from corporate earnings calls.

From McDonald’s whose stock rose 3% yesterday:

Global comps were up almost 4% and “This includes driving positive comparable guest counts globally despite a challenging backdrop for the industry.”

US comps were up 2.5% y/o/y, “But I would say we saw sales moderate through Q2 as I think those headwinds kind of persisted.” Also, “We outperformed nearing competitors on both comp sales and comp guest counts. Certainly, overall QSR traffic in the US remained challenging as visits across the industry by low income consumers once again declined by double digits versus the prior year ahead. Reengaging the low income consumer is critical as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle and high income consumers. This bifurcated consumer base is why we remain cautious about the overall near term health of the US consumer.” Overall QSR traffic by the way was down in Q2, “which was consistent with what we saw in Q1.”

And this was interesting as to how lower income consumers are behaving with the pressure they are feeling, “And the result of that is you’re seeing people either skip occasion, so they’re skipping a daypart like breakfast or they’re trading down either within our menu or they’re trading down to eating at home.”

To bring the lower income consumers back more often they then talked about their value initiatives like the continuation of the $5 meal deal among others.

As for their other customers, “I think the middle income consumer was marginally positive in visits in Q2, so a little bit better than Q1. And then we’ve got the kind of higher income consumer who continues to kind of grow visits, I think positively and consistently…You’ve got a bit of this kind of bifurcated consumer environment.”

From Jack in the Box:

"As many in the QSR industry have already called out, the macro environment is very difficult and consumers remain cautious. Jack in the Box significantly over indexes with Hispanic guests, to especially in our core markets that face uncertainty and have pulled back their spending. This issue is having an outsized impact on our sales. In addition, we have seen lower income cohorts pull back as well in line with industry trends."

From Dine Brands, the franchisor of Applebee's and IHOP and whose stock fell 6% yesterday:

"Overall, we continue to operate in a competitive environment. Consumers are still feeling macroeconomic pressure, and as a result, guests continue to manage their check by ordering fewer beverages and appetizers as well as trading down to lower price items on our menus."

"Applebee's reported a 4.9% increase in comp sales, and IHOP posted comp sales of negative 2.3%." An increase in traffic helped Applebee's.

From Doordash, whose stock is rallying by about 8% pre-market as convenience and delivery continues to grow in popularity:

"In our US marketplace in Q2 2025, y/o/y growth in Total Orders accelerated, with notable strength in the US restaurant category. Strong growth in DashPass membership contributed to a y/o/y increase in average order frequency, which reached an all-time high in Q2 2025. We believe we have been a pioneer in membership programs for local commerce and have continued working to improve the value proposition we offer."

"High levels of consumer engagement in the US were evident across many metrics and widespread throughout our consumer cohorts...We believe this highlights the broadening attraction of our marketplace and the opportunity we have to continue attracting new consumers."

And what is helping engagement? "If you look at the performance of the business, we've increased the selection on the platform quite considerably. The quality of the product is continuing to get better. We've made the product more affordable. More DashPass users are ordering from more categories."

From Walt Disney, a stock we own:

Focusing on the parks/cruise business for clues on the consumer, “Results reflect higher guest spending at our theme parks, an increase in passenger cruise days due to the launch of the Disney Treasure, and higher occupied room nights, partially offset by higher costs reflecting new guest offerings including the expansion of our Disney Cruise Line fleet.”

“In light of the fact that there’s a competitive offering in the marketplace (Universal’s park expansion in Orlando), the fact that attendance came in as well as it did is something that we feel terrific about.”

From Trulieve Cannabis, the largest dispensary operator in Florida and in other states too like Arizona and Pennsylvania:

“Several months ago, we recognized a shift in consumer preferences towards value and mid-tier products, broadly in line with national economic conditions.” They met this with value products which helped them gain market share.

“what we are seeing is we are seeing frequency increase fairly dramatically (in terms of traffic) candidly with customers coming back more often. But again, that basket and that spend per visit lowering and then looking for additional value in their purchase.”

From Airbnb, and whose stock is down about 6% pre-market:

"We exceeded expectations across key metrics, including bookings, revenue, and margins. And while the quarter started with some global economic uncertainty, travel demand picked up, and nights booked at Airbnb accelerated from April to July."

"Looking at the growth rates by region, Latin America grew in the high teens, Asia Pacific grew in the mid-teens, EMEA in the middle single digits, and North America in the low single digits."

Maybe this is why the stock is trading down, in addition to the slow North American growth, "we do expect y/o/y comparisons to get tougher toward the end of the quarter, and that this dynamic will continue into Q4, putting pressure on growth rates later in the year."

From Elf Beauty, and whose stock is lower by 10% pre-market:

"As we spoke about last quarter, we are planning to provide a full year fiscal '26 outlook once we have greater certainty on tariffs. Unfortunately, there continues to be a broad range of potential outcomes. To set the foundation, about 75% of our global production today comes from China."

With tariff rates on China back down to 55% (25% from 2019 plus the new 30% tariff) but still unclear where it finishes up, "we are waiting for greater clarity to issue a full year fiscal '26 outlook. For context, if tariffs were to remain at this incremental 30% level, we estimate the gross impact to our goods sold to be approximately $50 million on an annualized basis." They are currently doing what they can to mitigate this through "pricing, supply chain optimization and business diversification."

And on pulling the pricing lever, "Overall retailer acceptance has been good for our price increases...The other thing I will tell you is we are hearing of a number of brands that are going to be taking pricing. So I think we're just in that environment right now with the uncertainty of tariffs and the tariff impact that you will probably see more companies take pricing."

China reported its July trade data and it was above expectations. Exports grew by 7.2% y/o/y, above the estimate of 5.6% growth. But, the changing trade world was reflected here as exports to the US were down by 22% but rose to the EU, Southeast Asia and Australia. China continues to find other places to sell their stuff and are continuing to be less reliant on US trade. Imports were higher by 4.1% y/o/y vs the forecast of a drop of 1% driven by higher commodity and semi imports.

The new tariff reality is here and we now get to see how this will all work out.

German industrial production in June was weak, falling by 1.9% m/o/m, more than the expected fall of .5% and May was revised down by 110 bps.

With S&P cash +40 handles I am adding to my short index calls.

From Peter Boockvar:

Quick review of claims and productivity data

Initial jobless claims totaled 226k, 4k more than expected and up from 219k in the week before. The 4 week average was unchanged at 221k. Continuing claims lifted to 1.974mm from 1.936mm and that is a new cycle high at the highest since November 2021.

The bottom line remains the same with firing's, as measured here, modest, while finding a job has gotten tougher.

Productivity in Q2 was as expected when we include the downward revision to Q1. On a y/o/y basis, it grew by 1.3% following a 1.2% gain in Q1. The average in 2024 was about 2.7%.

Unit labor costs grew by 2.6% y/o/y and that is most since Q1 2024.

Bottom line, just as we did with the GDP report, it is best to merge Q1 and Q2 because of the distortions related to the timing of the delivery of goods with the on and off tariffs. That gives us an average annualized first half 2025 productivity gain of just .3% with unit labor costs up by 4.25%. A margin hit for those who can't pass on their higher costs.

We of course wait for the productivity enhancements from GenAI but honestly, it could take a few years before we really know the extent.

Krispy Kreme, an investment short, spits the bit:

Krispy Kreme, an investment short, spits the bit:Krispy Kreme misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line; announces (another!) turnaround plan ...

• Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 worse than the FactSet Consensus of ($0.03); revenues fell 13.5% year/year to $379.77 mln vs the $378.69 mln FactSet Consensus.
• "The Company has implemented a comprehensive turnaround plan to deleverage the balance sheet and deliver sustainable, profitable growth through a focus on the following four components:

• Refranchising: Improve financial flexibility through refranchising international markets and restructuring the joint venture in the Western U.S.
• Driving Return on Invested Capital: Reduce capital intensity by using existing assets and focusing on franchisee development
• Expanding Margins: Expand margins through greater operational efficiency, including outsourcing U.S. logistics
• Driving Sustainable, Profitable Growth: Pursue U.S. growth based upon sustainable and profitable revenue streams"

Shares -15%

Upside:

-DUOL +27% (earnings, guidance)

-ARIS +20% (to be acquired by Western Midstream for ~$1.5B in cash and stock)

-HBI +19% (earnings, guidance)

-HTZ +18% (earnings)

-MQ +17% (earnings, guidance)

-JMIA +16% (earnings, guidance)

-AMPL +15% (earnings, guidance)

-DDOG +13% (earnings, guidance)

-NBIS +13% (earnings, guidance)

-APPN +12% (earnings, guidance)

-MODG +10% (earnings, guidance)

-PTON +9.9% (earnings, guidance)

-SN +9.3% (earnings, guidance)

-EPAM +8.2% (earnings, guidance)

-NVO +8.2% (strength following data on LLY oral obesity drug)

-DKNG +7.8% (earnings, guidance)

-KTB +7.6% (earnings, guidance)

-DASH +7.4% (earnings, guidance)

-BDX +7.2% (earnings, guidance)

-CXW +7.0% (earnings, guidance)

-HUBS +6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-MOGO +6.7% (earnings, guidance)

-PZZA +6.7% (earnings, guidance)

-SITM +5.8% (earnings)

-RL +3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-VITL +3.2% (earnings, guidance)

-APA +3.0% (earnings)

Downside:

-SANA -25% (prices 20.9M shares at $3.35/share for gross proceeds ~$75M)

-FTNT -21% (earnings, guidance)

-EXAS -20% (earnings, guidance)

-CROX -17% (earnings, guidance)

-DNUT -15% (earnings)

-SABR -15% (earnings, guidance)

-HNST -10% (earnings, guidance)

-ELF -9.5% (earnings)

-PRMB -9.2% (earnings, guidance)

-POWI -8.4% (earnings, guidance)

-ABNB -7.4% (earnings, guidance)

-LLY -6.6% (earnings, guidance; reports underwhelming data on oral obesity drug)

-BMBL -6.5% (earnings, guidance)

-CF -6.0% (earnings, guidance)

-VST -5.9% (earnings, guidance)

-SBET -3.9% (enters into Purchase Agreements with Select Institutional Investors for $200 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock)

-INTC -3.0% (President Trump calls for CEO to resign)

-MET -2.6% (earnings)

Sold 1/3rd of my LLY trading long rental at $690/share.

From earlier:

Lilly Cost Basis

Cost basis of (LLY) buy is $646.52.

Position: Long LLY (S)

By Doug KassAug 7, 2025 7:20 AM EDT

Lilly Long Rental

I took a trading long rental in Eli Lilly (LLY) at $652.77

Position: Long LLY (S)

By Doug KassAug 7, 2025 6:52 AM EDT

I added to Palantir PLTR $180.99 and Nvidia NVDA $181.58 shorts.

Cost basis of LLY buy is $646.52.

I took a trading long rental in Eli Lilly LLY at $652.77

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Chart Advisor

UNH... Perfect Time to Buy?

Volatility Season Is Here

Long-Term Winners, Keep On Trucking

July Equity Flows and Concentration

I have moved to medium-sized short indices (common):

* SPY $638.12

* QQQ $572.13

Wolf Street howls about Florida housing's median days on the market. 

* Expanding short exposure in a narrowing market full of divergences...

Added to index common shorts (5:25 AM):

* SPY $636.91

* QQQ $571.12