At 4:20 p.m.

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors 

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

At 3:13 p.m.:

Wolf Street howls about the EV industry.

* I added to my TSLA short this morning...

I just received this from Tesla TSLA:

Model Y RWD Is Eligible For Two New Incentives

Model Y Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive offers an upgraded premium interior and more range with up to 357 est. miles on a single charge.

Now through June 30, 2025, you can lease Model Y Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive starting at $399* per month for 36 months with a down payment of $1,000 in eligible leasing states.

Or get 1.99% APR** financing for up to 72 months when you take delivery of Model Y Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive by June 30, 2025.

* Price momentum continues unabated

* With everyone now in the tech pool...

I wonder if it has dawned on Mark Zuckerberg that maybe the problem is the tech, not the people — thus why Meta's META progress is so poor?

The other issue is very very very very few scientists are really good at this stuff. Good luck finding fifty of them that are not already gainfully employed elsewhere. And if you could, the odds of them getting along for longer than a month are near zero!

Hopefully, it works out better than the Metaverse did!

It was a similar issue in the biotech funding bubble. I kept asking myself “how can there be that many scientists that are this good?” Turns out, of course, there weren’t, so nearly all of it went bust. Not to mention, you really need the merger of good science with a good idea — not all ideas are good either nor do they all address a real pain point…

“Mark Zuckerberg, frustrated with Meta Platforms Inc.’s shortfalls in AI, is assembling a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence. Zuckerberg aims to hire around 50 people for the new team, including a new head of AI research”

In other news, Meta needs it to go from $10 billion of ARR to $125 billion of ARR, just for it to finally start making money? And people want to keep funding this?

Just the sheer amount of dollars this will take, and all the dilution, if the business model even ever works, which I am highly skeptical of, especially with all of the competition for the same profit pool?

One of the main reasons that big tech has worked so well, that nobody talks about, is each one of them is really a monopoly. That is the dirty little secret — the government allows for monopolies, as long as they do what the government wants! Big tech is more about monopoly power than it is about tech….. heck, two of them just basically sell advertising, at whatever prices they want!

Microsoft MSFT and Apple AAPL just basically sell price for their core product, and don’t even get me started on the Apple app store scam with their 30% fees…

Here is another interesting one:

With S&P cash +28 handles, I added to SPY puts.

I shorted more indices:

* SPY $601.62

* QQQ $532.31

I am growing more confident that the market is vulnerable (see my SPY puts purchase earlier) and that the largest constituent top holdings in the GRNY ETF may fall.

Regarding GRNY, which is now my Trade of the Week, here is some evidence this morning:

* NFLX -$41

* GEV -$21

* CRWD -$7

* HOOD -$3

From earlier this morning:

I'm Going Big With GRNY Short

This morning I have moved to a large short position in Tom Lee's (GRNY) ETF (today's cost at $21.39).

It is my view that the equity market is vulnerable and that GRNY is a conservative short.

I selected GRNY as a short owing to that its Top 10 holdings consist of nearly every momentum stock - many of which seem vulnerable: Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) Holdings | Seeking Alpha

Rather that accept short risk on individual stocks like (NFLX) , (HOOD) , (CRWD) , (NVDA) , (GEV) , (GOOGL) etc. (all Top 10 positions) - GRNY is a diversified short.

Position: Short GRNY L

By Doug Kass Jun 10, 2025 10:19 AM EDT

- NYSE volume is 6% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume is 33% above its one-month average;

- VIX index is down 0.70% to 17.04

I am now long in the money SPY puts for late June.

Bond prices are now well off their day's highs.

Watch TLT closely.

My friends Anthony and Shadd of The Dales Report posted this lengthy podcast from Benzinga's Cannabis Conference yesterday.

This morning I have moved to a large short position in Tom Lee's (GRNY) ETF (today's cost at $21.39).

It is my view that the equity market is vulnerable and that GRNY is a conservative short.

I selected GRNY as a short owing to that its Top 10 holdings consist of nearly every momentum stock - many of which seem vulnerable: Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) Holdings | Seeking Alpha

Rather that accept short risk on individual stocks like NFLX, HOOD, CRWD, NVDA, GEV, GOOGL etc. (all Top 10 positions) - GRNY is a diversified short.

Added to Index shorts:

* SPY $600.82

* QQQ $532.18

Adding back to TSLA short at $314.75.

From last week:

Covering Most of My Tesla Short

I'm covering most of the (TSLA) short at $316.33.

Down to tagends.

From earlier in the week:

Premarket Tesla Trade

I shorted (TSLA) at $344.18.

Position: Short TSLA (VS

By Doug Kass Jun 3, 2025 7:30 AM EDT

Position: Short TSLA (VS)

By Doug KassJun 5, 2025 9:55 AM EDT

From Peter Boockvar:

Business and household confidence ebbing and flowing with tariff announcements and drama

With the sharp reduction of tariff rates between the US and China off the punitive levels seen in April, and post the April 9th reciprocal tariff pause with everyone else, the May NFIB Small Business Optimism index rebounded by 3 pts to 98.8 after four months of declines.

Post the jobs data last week, particularly the ADP report which showed a reduction in small business payrolls, Plans to Hire fell 1 pt after rising by a like amount last month. At 12%, it matches the lowest since March 2024. Job openings held at the least since January 2021. The compensation components were mixed as the current outlook saw a 7 pt drop but future plans for comp rose 3 pts. Capital spending plans rose 4 pts to 22% but just getting back to around the 6 month average of 21%. Plans to Increase Inventory remained below zero at -1%.

Those seeing Higher Selling Prices were unchanged m/o/m at 25% which is about in line with the 6 month average of 26%, so no real response yet to higher costs due to tariffs or margins are getting hurt instead. The earnings picture weakened by 5 pts after gaining 7 last month. That said, three month expectations for selling prices rose 3 pts to 31%, the highest since March 2024.

Four percent said "their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from April." The average rate paid on a loan was 8.7%, down .2 pts m/o/m.

As for the expectation pieces of the survey, those that Expect a Better Economy rose 10 pts after dropping by a combined 22 pts in the two prior months in response to the tariff ramp up. Those that Expect Higher Sales rose 11 pts after declining by 15 over the past two months. Those saying it's a Good Time to Expand though only rose 1 pt after dropping 3 over the previous two months.

Of note too, taxes are now the number one small business problem at 18% and the last time this was the case was in December 2020. Labor quality is number two at 16% and inflation is 3rd at 14%.

Also, "When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 14% reported excellent (up one point), and 55% reported good (down one point). Twenty-eight percent reported the health of their business was fair (up one point) and 4% reported poor (unchanged)."

The bottom line from Bill Dunkelberg, "Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners. While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth."

"It's hard to steer a ship in the fog" was the last sentence of the concluding commentary.

Nothing market moving with this data ever but we know small business is on the front lines of the tariff war as they don't have the financial wherewithal, operational agility and lobbying abilities that their larger peers have.

NFIB

Plans to Hire

Expect a Better Economy

Higher Selling Prices

Price Plans Over Next Three Months

Also responding to the ratcheting down of tariff tensions with China, the NY Fed's Consumer Expectations Survey saw a drop in inflation expectations for all three time horizons. Specifically looking out one year, they fell .4 to 3.2%. This was 3% in January and jumped to 3.6% by April. For perspective, this was at 2.5% as we entered 2020.

The trade cool down also helped to lift expectations of the labor market with respect to the outlook for unemployment and losing one's job but there was a drop in expectations in the ability of finding a new job if one is lost. Income expectations were slightly higher m/o/m.

Spending growth expectations fell two tenths but remained in its 12 month range. Credit access rose but expectations for future credit availability weakened. Delinquency expectations did improve.

Overall "Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago and expectations about year ahead financial situations both improved slightly."

My bottom line, both with business and consumer expectations, they are now ebbing and flowing with the direction of this tariff drama.

One yr Inflation Expectations

The FTSE 100 is knocking on record highs and we own a few stocks that trade there as the market is cheap but their May jobs data was weaker than expected as higher payroll costs brought on by the Starmer government had its impact again. Payrolls fell by 109k, well more than the estimate of down 20k and after a drop of 55k in April, revised lower by 22k. Jobless claims rose too. Wage growth in the 3 months ended April was higher by 5.3%, still solid and well above the rate of inflation but less than forecasted. Their unemployment rate as of April rose to 4.6%, the most in 4 years.

The ONS said, "There continues to be weakening in the labor market, with the number of people on payroll falling notably. Feedback from our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on."

Gilt yields are falling by about 7 bps across their curve in response. The British pound is lower too, though still around the highest level vs the US dollar since January 2022.

Payroll Change in UK

Upside:

-INSM +27% (TPIP meets all Phase 2b endpoints in PAH study)

-MGNX +21% (enters into ZYNYZ Royalty Purchase Agreement with Sagard Healthcare Partners; MacroGenics received a $70M upfront payment for the sale of its royalty rights on global net sales of ZYNYZ)

-RFL +19% (CEO Jonas disclosed purchase of >13M class B shares at $1.28/shr)

-UNFI +6.4% (earnings, guidance)

-TME +5.4% (acquires Ximalaya Inc for $1.26B cash and ~$1.47B in stock)

-AUB +2.6% (Raymond James Raised AUB to Strong Buy from Outperform, price target: $41)

-ASO +2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-TSM +2.4% (earnings)

Downside:

-DBI -24% (earnings; withdraws guidance)

-LQDA -15% (reaction to INSM Phase 2B study results of treprostinil palmitil inhalation powder for pulmonary arterial hypertension)

-AIRS -14% (prices 3.16M share secondary at $3.80/shr in $12M offering)

-UTHR -12% (reaction to INSM Phase 2B study results of treprostinil palmitil inhalation powder for pulmonary arterial hypertension)

-SJM -8.0% (earnings, guidance)

-TTGT -5.9% (hearing JPMorgan Chase and Co Cuts TTGT to Underweight from Neutral, price target: $8)

-CNM -5.1% (earnings, guidance)

-RBRK -4.0% (files to sell $1.0B offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 in a private placement)

Most active premarket ETFs as of 8:19 a.m. ET: 

Premarket percentage movers chart from 8:39 a.m. ET: 

Over the last several years I have treated Apple AAPL as a trading sardine -- shorting periods of elation and covering during the ensuing disappointments.

I don't currently have a dog in the Apple hunt:

Apple WWDC announcements 'more evolutionary than revolutionary,' says UBS Apple made a number of software-related announcements at its annual developer conference, but the announcements made at WWDC were "more evolutionary than revolutionary" and unlikely to drive iPhone demand, UBS tells investors in a research note. UBS believes consensus iPhone revenue estimates over the next four quarters are too optimistic. The firm has a Neutral rating and $210 price target on the shares.

Apple's WWDC Keynote 'disappointing', says Needham L Needham keeps a Hold rating with no price target on Apple following the company's initial keynote at WWDC yesterday. Among Apple's new announcements were live-call real time translations, call screening with call-back options, and a videogame hub that allows new interactive and social tools, but none of these are "important upside value drivers", the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham further states that the Siri updates were "underwhelming" and, as the firm noted in its prior downgrade, it still believes that Apple requires an iPhone upgrade cycle for shares to work.

Apple WWDC kickoff 'not as exciting as prior years,' says BofA BofA says Apple's kickoff to its Worldwide Developers Conference event "was not as exciting as prior years," but adds that Apple presented "a substantive UI refresh and developer-focused AI strategy" along with their most compressive visual update since 2013. Despite the event being "underwhelming versus prior years," it affirms Apple's privacy-centric take on AI, which the firm believes is "important to Apple ecosystem users and could prove smart." Apple is expanding its AI offering and leaning into its ecosystem and reputation for seamlessness, adds the firm, which maintains its Buy rating and $235 price target on the shares.

Apple 'clearly still has ingredients to make AI winner,' says Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley says Apple's WWDC 2025 kickoff was heavy on design, user interface, and platform unification upgrades, alongside "a sprinkling of AI upgrades," but few major AI feature enhancements. While the firm believes sentiment is unlikely to shift until more tangible AI progress is evident, it contends that Apple "clearly still has the ingredients to make it an AI winner." The firm keeps an Overweight rating and $235 price target on Apple shares.

Apple WWDC sets shares up well for 2026, says Citi Citi says Apple held its WWDC with a major revamp of its software designs across Apple platforms, new operating systems, and Apple Intelligence updates. The firm likes the new and more unified "liquid glass" design across all platforms, the continued improvement on Vision Pro, the more "Mac-like" iPad operating system and more iPhone apps on Mac for continuity, and how Apple Intelligence is deeply integrated in apps across Apple devices. However, the firm acknowledges that investors focus is on the previously delayed personalized Siri update to 2026. Citi keeps a Buy rating on Apple shares with a $240 price target, saying the WWDC sets the stock up well for 2026

11:00AM: Treasury Announces a 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction;

11:30AM: Treasury hosts a $48B 52-Week Bill Auction;

11:30AM: Treasury hosts a $55B 6-Week Bill Auction;

1:00PM: Treasury hosts a $58B 3-Year Note Auction

Sometimes I'm right, I can be wrong.

My own beliefs are in my song.

A butcher, a banker, a drummer, and then

makes no difference what group I'm in.

I am everyday people! (yeah yeah)

There is a blue one who can't accept the green one

for living with the black one trying to be a skinny one

Different strokes, for different folks!

And so on, and so on, and scooby-dooby-doo. (oooh, sha sha!)

- Sly & The Family Stone, Everyday People 

Sly Stone reminded us that we are all everyday people who make mistakes and of the importance of inclusivity (Family Stone was the first American rock band that was racially integrated) — two things that we should all be constantly reminded of.

Sly was the wonder of Woodstock (The Music Festival) — it was the only time I saw one of his live performances. I can still remember his set list of ten songs on August 17, 1969, culminating in an encore performance of "Stand."

Throughout his career he conquered the cultural landscape then arguably squandering his vantage point as his Family Stone fractured amid ego and Sly's own unreliability.

Sly put together Family Stone, a band of players and singers, black and white, male and female, that served as a music world version of the original Sesame Street cast — bright with the promise of the 1960s of a multicultural future unbound by racial, gender or genre distinctions.

And who can forget his marvelous musical lyrics like: 

"Thank You (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin)"

RIP and farewell Sly Stone — a pivotal figure in the evolution of American music who experienced a life with an equal balance of genius and pain, of pleasure and addiction. 

Bonus — Here are some great links:

A View From the Floor

The Shake and Bake in BTC

No Hype No Drama

Tech Is Leading From the April Bottom But Another Sector Is Leading YTD

Safe to Stay Invested?

The S&P Short Range Oscillator expanded to 4.22% vs. 3.26% — the overbought is growing more meaningful.

I added to my index shorts last night.

From the Comments Section: 

Dougie Kass

Monday Night Trades

Added to Index shorts (855PM):

• SPY $600.54
• QQQ $531.84