As of 4:22 p.m.:

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 20% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 12% below its one-month average

- VIX index: up 2.07% to 24.67

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

I will be leaving early today (at around 3:30 p.m.) as I have a trip.

I will be back on Friday morning.

I am long very small META into the EPS report (and I am out of MSFT, as posted).

Thanks for reading my Diary today.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

I am going to call B.S. to the China news report.

With S&P cash -26 handles I am shorting more index calls.

China press reports (through TradeTheNews) that the U.S. reached out to China recently regarding tariff talks.

I have no clue if correct, but it helps to explain the brief rip higher to near breakeven.

Wolf Street on the role of imports on Q1 GDP.

With S&P cash down by only -32 handles I am re-shorting SPY and QQQ calls.

RockyMtnTrader

Do you have more of an insight than us commoners? Are you planning on buying it back when legislation gets passed?

Dougie Kass

Replying to RockyMtnTrader

Structurally flawed, includes too many third tier companies that will not survive.

I now prefer to stick to individual (and the strongest) companies in the space.

Selling MSOS at $3.30.

I have concluded that the ETF is structurally flawed so I am going to move away from the ETF and concentrate on individual names.

* Staying in motion...

I took in a portion of my Tesla TSLA short from yesterday at $274.65 for a nice gain.

From Tuesday:

Adding to Tesla Short

I'm adding to my Tesla (TSLA) short at $292.

By Doug Kass Apr 29, 2025 4:05 PM EDT

I'm out of my index straddles.

- NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume flat to its one-month average;

- VIX Index: up 8.48% to 26.22

I am hearing there is more movement in Washington, D.C. (on several fronts) on the issues of Safe Banking and Rescheduling.

The three stocks I am specifically buying are GTBIF, TCNNF and TSNDF - this is where my focus is.

From Peter Boockvar:

Always good to hear from companies themselves on what they are seeing

I'll start with the US housing market which weakened again for the week ended 4/25 according to the MBA. Purchase applications dropped by 4.4% w/o/w and lower for a 3rd week. Refi's were down by 3.7% w/o/w, also down for a 3rd week. The average 30 yr mortgage rate was 6.89% but is dropping since with the decline in the US 10 yr yield. Purchase applications are still hovering around 30 yr lows.

So many earnings calls to go through with comments sounding as you would think in the current environment we are in with all the known unknowns.

From UPS:

"Starting with the US, while we expected negative ADV growth given our Amazon glide down plan, January's ADV decline was less than expected, marked by positive average daily volume or ADV growth in certain B2B, SMB, and healthcare customers. Then, as we moved into February and March, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand from some enterprise and SMB customers. As a result, the decline in US ADV for the months of February and March was higher than we expected."

"Looking outside the US, demand for US inbound services surged as customers pulled forward inventory purchases ahead of expected tariff changes."

"In the US, we've talked with our top 100 customers to understand how their business is being impacted, both directly and indirectly, by changes in trade policy. These customers have told us that they are exploring various options to address the tariffs, from absorbing the cost to pushing them into retail prices to asking suppliers to help defray the expense. At this point, it remains an open question as to what path they will choose and what the potential impact could be on consumer demand and our business."

"For the rest of the world, through the middle of April, we have interviewed nearly 45,000 international and freight forwarding customers to ascertain their shipping plans. For small package shippers, over 95% of those customers have told us that they expect to maintain their current business models, while the rest are considering several options, including trade shifts, transportation mode shifts, or exiting the business. Most of these customers are also telling us that they are letting inventory levels sell-off, which will lead to lower shipping activity, at least for now. Freight forwarding customers are telling us that, where they can, they are looking to move from air freight to ocean freight."

From Starbucks where comps fell 1% globally and down 2% in the US:

"our Q2 results are disappointing, especially as measured by EPS. But behind the scenes, we made a lot of progress and have real momentum with our Back to Starbucks plans."

"In the US, market share, brand sentiment, and customer contacts regarding wait times are all improving."

On their China business, "we've also seen indicators of progress following near term changes to our product offerings...As we see signs of progress, I want to be clear that we remain committed to China for the long-term. We see great potential for our business there in the years ahead and remain open to how we achieve that growth."

From Booking Holdings:

"At the start of the 2nd quarter, we are currently seeing stable levels of global leisure travel demand despite rising geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns."

"Looking at our room nights growth by region in the first quarter, Europe and Asia were up high single digits, Rest of World was up low double digits, and the US was up low single digits."

"In the quarter, we observed notable changes in certain travel patterns. For example, we saw a moderation in trends for inbound travel into the US, particularly from bookers in Canada and to a lesser extent from bookers in Europe. However, we also saw an improvement in trends in other travel corridors, for example, from Canada to Mexico, resulting in stable growth overall."

"While we saw a y/o/y increase in length of stay on a global basis, we saw a decrease in length of stay in the US, which could indicate that US consumers are becoming more careful with their spending. We also saw some evidence of a bifurcated economy in the US as higher star rating hotels appear to be more resilient than lower star rating hotels. We have not seen either of these dynamics in Europe."

From Hilton Worldwide:

They saw 2.5% y/o/y RevPAR growth in Q1 "driven by strong momentum from the end of last year that carried into 2025 and supported solid performance in both January and February. However, broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, which pressured demand, particularly across leisure."

"Business transient RevPAR increased 2%, led by solid performance from small and medium sized businesses, a resilient customer that continues to make up roughly 85% of our business transient mix."

Group business was up 6% y/o/y, "supported by growth in urban markets and continued strength in company meetings."

"Weaker trends have continued into the 2nd quarter with short term bookings roughly flat y/o/y. We believe travelers are largely in wait-and-see mode as the rapidly changing macro environment continues to unfold."

From Royal Caribbean:

"as we look across the current macro landscape, we recognize that there is heightened uncertainty. However, research, including the direct surveying of our customers, continue to show that that propensity to cruise remains encouraging...We are certainly not immune to macro volatility, but what we're seeing on the ground in our bookings and the real time spending occurring on our ships is that consumers are still prioritizing experiences, planning to spend more on them this year, and are seeking value that we are well positioned to offer."

"At this point, it's still too early to determine how exactly the current macro environment could impact the broader economy or consumer behavior."

From Brinker's International and whose stock was down 15% yesterday on a very high bar they had to leap:

Chili's continues to do great with comps up an astonishing 32% y/o/y with success with their burgers. "These results were achieved by our continued focus on the fundamentals of casual dining, food, service, and atmosphere."

"Except for a slight dip in both sales and traffic in February due to weather, Chili's delivered consistent results every period of the quarter, and has maintained this momentum into April. We now believe more than ever, consumers will continue to reward Chili's as a brand that consistently provides great food, service, and atmosphere at an exceptional value."

"Guests are pulling back the number of trips across restaurants in the industry, and are choosing those brands they trust to have a great experience. So those brands delivering on superior fundamentals will grow market share, and we believe Chili's is well positioned to be one of those winning share, and Maggiano's has now started the journey, too."

From Sysco, the largest distributor of food to restaurants:

They saw a hit from the California wildfires and bad weather in January and February and "foot traffic to restaurants during the quarter reflected these challenges, with January down 1.3%, February down 5.7%, and March down 2.3%."

"In addition to the effects of adverse weather in the quarter, consumer confidence has been shaken by the recent trade policy and tariff negotiations...The decline in confidence levels gives us concern for the full year ahead."

"on our Q2 call we had anticipated nominal improvement in the business macro environment going from the first half into the 2nd half of our fiscal year. Unfortunately, at this time, we have experienced the opposite macro effect, and Sysco's business performance for Q3 reflects the industry traffic deceleration." April has gotten a touch better but "we are cautiously planning our business for the remainder of 2025, given the aforementioned tariff uncertainties and consumer confidence data."

From Visa:

"Our key business drivers were strong. Even with the lapping of Leap day from last year and consumer spending remained resilient in an uncertain and dynamic environment."

I think some pull forward is making current sales seem fine and Visa said "we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening. While spending growth differs among consumer spend bands, with the most affluent growing the fastest, all spend bands remain resilient and consistent with past quarters."

"Within spend categories, there are some select areas, such as travel with airlines and lodging, where growth has decelerated, but overall discretionary and non-discretionary spend remains strong. Outside the US, we see similar stable trends."

"Within cross border, volume growth was in line with Q4 2024 levels. We have seen some impacts from currency weakness and travel to specific countries, but the overall growth was above the pre-Covid trend."

Not surprisingly, the April manufacturing PMI's out of China weakened with the state sector focused PMI falling under 50 to 49 from 50.5. The private sector Caixin was at 50.4 from 51.2.

Caixin said, "A renewed fall in new export orders, which was often attributed to the impact of tariffs, led to a slower and only marginal rise in total new work. As a result, production growth likewise eased on the month. Firms also lowered their inventory levels as business optimism fell. Concurrently, reduced capacity pressures led to the resumption of job shedding in April."

On prices, they "remained subdued. Input costs declined slightly, which some companies attributed to lower prices for industrial metals and other bulk commodities, although some firms reported that raw material prices climbed due to the US tariffs. The 2nd straight monthly decline in input costs allowed companies to reduce prices charged to customers to increase their competitiveness."

Ahead of the US Q1 GDP report, the Eurozone grew by .4% q/o/q, twice the estimate and by 1.2% y/o/y. Spain was the standout as seen yesterday. Germany's economy grew .2% q/o/q but still contracted y/o/y by .2%. Italy's economy saw some upside relative to expectations of .2% q/o/q and .6% y/o/y. The French economy was little changed q/o/q, up .1% and grew by .8% y/o/y. All still pretty modest growth but that's Europe and all obviously before tariffs really ramped up.

Also out, CPI in April in France rose .6% m/o/m, two tenths above expectations and higher by .8% y/o/y. Also out, German unemployment in April rose by 4k, below the estimate of up 15k.

European bond yields are lower, following the US treasury rally and the euro is down a touch. European stocks are mixed.

Out of Index shorts.

Out of MSFT short.

"We are about to rock the world...You are about to watch a show that no one has ever seen before. I am going to put my skills to work for you... and best of all I am going to tell it in a way you have never heard before."

- Jim Cramer (March, 2005) Mad Money premiered on CNBC on March 14, 2005.

From the very start, with a strong backing by CNBC's Jeff Zucker, Mad Money was unique and so different than any other financial show before it.

 

"Mad Money was its own thing from the beginning."

- CNBC's David Faber

Last night Jim "El Capitan" Cramer celebrated the 20th anniversary of Mad Money: Jim Cramer reflects on 20 years of 'Mad Money'

Here is CNBC's Special Mad Money Anniversary Show: CNBC Special: Mad Money 20th Anniversary.

During the day Jim appeared on The Today Show to talk about the last two decades of his CNBC show (see it here: Jim Cramer talks 20 years of ‘Mad Money,’ economic uncertainty.)

I spent over two amazing decades writing a column next to Jim on TheStreet.com, which he founded in the late 1990s.

I appeared on Mad Money and Kudlow & Cramer on numerous occasions as a guest.

Jim has been a leading pioneer in business and investing media.

His reservoir of investment knowledge is unparalleled.

Jim entertains viewers, from his core, with passion and energy (he is an "ironman") -- in simple terms that can easily be digested by the viewers.

He is innovative.

Jim cares.

He wears his emotions on his sleeve and, unlike many, takes ownership of his mistakes:

"I did not get that right. I apologize. I was not right in my thinking."

- Jim Cramer

Jim has created the currency of trust and has helped in the democratization of investing. He is a teacher who has chosen to share his investment knowledge with investors rather than to build a multi-billion dollar hedge fund, which he was no doubt capable of doing.

One could say that he has been the pied piper of investment advice for a generation of investors, especially the yute who responded so strongly and emotionally in his college tours. If you don't believe me, just go to the 25-minute, 20-second mark of this Mad Money show -- CNBC Special: Mad Money 20th Anniversary 4/29/25 | Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer -- and watch an emotional interview with Francesca at the University of Miami in which see shares how much the show meant to her because she watched Mad Money with her dad, who died from cancer.

"What Taylor Swift is to the music industry, is what Jim Cramer is to the business media."

- CNBC's Sara Eisen

Like Taylor Swift, Jim has become a part of our culture.

He has been parodied on The Simpsons and on South Park (Cartman as Jim Cramer - Mad Money Stocks).

Some critics call Jim a clown, but he is not a clown -- far from it. His antics are intentional as he used to tell me he conducted himself in his manner purposely in order to garner interest in what is sometimes a rather mundane and uninteresting business.

At least that was the case before Jim. He made investing fun and entertaining.

I was often not in agreement with Jim. He is inherently bullish, I am inherently bearish. I even used to write a column called the Anti Cramer.

But we have shared a mutual respect for each other.

From my annual tribute to the 9/11 victims:

The most poignant recollection on TheStreet was the following post by Jim "El Capitan" Cramer, who recalled an incident at his synagogue. To this day, it always brings me to tears:

"At our synagogue last night on the eve of the Jewish New Year, our rabbi asked us to shout out the names of friends and family that we'd lost that day. There were so many names, it was frightening and I was glad we had left the kids at home. I felt honored to yell out Bill's name. And I feel honored to have gotten to meet and work with him in his short time on earth. Oops, wanted to cry as I wrote that. Could feel it coming on. Nope, no can do. Not with that picture of him in my mind wearing that funny floral shirt. He wouldn't want us to remember him in any other way than with laughter. God bless your soul, Bill. God bless the Meehan family."

- Jim Cramer, Remembering Bill Meehan

Before Jim left TheStreet I wrote an annual tribute to him:

I started writing for TheStreet.com back in 1997, when I penned a column called The Contrarian. At that time, the site was a relatively new concept and a real-time experiment that struggled in its infancy. But it began to flourish even as the economy and markets suffered in 2001. We've not only dealt with the market's ups and downs since I started writing for Jim Cramer, but also have shared some of life's experiences together through visits, emails, telephone conversations and other personal correspondences. In the past I've defended Jimmy. I've written a continuing piece called On Jim Being Cramer and I've transformed myself at times into the Anti-Cramer. I have written a series of lengthy and heartfelt columns entitled, "Lessons I Have Learned From Jim Cramer."I've agreed ("There's Always a Bull Market Somewhere") and sometimes disagreed with Jim, all the while with the maximum respect for him as a businessman, investor, friend, author, media figure and, most importantly, as a dad (like myself).

In my book, Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on the Street, Jim kindly wrote the forward. His tribute to me made me blush:

Sit down and strap yourself in. You are about to embark on a journey back in time that will teach you more about making money in the future than just about any source anywhere in the firmament. You are about to see what the market really looks like through the eyes of one of the greatest financial whizzes and wits of our generation, the one and only Doug Kass.

I had the privilege of working side by cyber-side with Doug in our writing cave, TheStreet.com, for almost twenty years. In this time, I have come to respect and covet his views and his insights as I know you will as you read his real-time journal detailing the ecstasy, agony and just plain madness of the world we call Wall Street... For all these reasons and many more, you will come to share the joy I have of cracking open the browser each morning to my favorite columnist to learn what I didn't think would happen before it actually occurs.

With his success and visibility, Jim is not immune to criticism (including from me). I will continue to let Jim and our subscribers know when I believe Jim has erred -- as I did recently it discussing his perhaps too cozy relationships with some management teams, which make some hard investment decisions even more difficult to execute. 

But I suspect Jim respects this from me.

Mark Hoffman, my occasional golf partner (and winner of my Club's member guest with me) was his boss for many years at CNBC. He so adored Jim -- and told me it numerous times on the golf course.

Booyah, Jim.

You are a one of a kind.

May you celebrate your thirtieth anniversary in 2035!

Long live the people's republic of Cramerica.

Fly Eagles, Fly.

From Comments:

Dougie Kass

STAFF

2 minutes ago

Taking in my SPY and QQQ common shorts at $546.60 and $466.14 for a nice gain.

Reply

From earlier"

 More Premarket Trades

Added to index shorts:* 

 (SPY) $553.87* (QQQ) $474.66Position: Short SPY common (VS) and calls/puts (S), QQQ common (VS) and calls/puts (S)

By Doug Kass

Apr 30, 2025 6:35 AM EDT

Upside:

-RGLS +133% (to be acquired by Novartis for initial payment of $7.00/shr in cash at closing, or $0.8B)

-ODD +16% (earnings, guidance)

-ORN +12% (earnings)

-FRSH +11% (earnings, guidance)

-BBIO +8.8% (earnings)

-QRVO +8.7% (earnings, guidance)

-TTI +8.7% (earnings, guidance)

-STEM +8.2% (earnings, guidance)

-NOG +7.8% (earnings, guidance)

-OI +7.0% (earnings, guidance)

-CSTM +6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-STX +6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-TT +5.5% (earnings, guidance)

-HUM +5.3% (earnings, guidance)

-LFUS +4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-FLS +3.8% (earnings, guidance)

-LRN +3.8% (earnings, guidance)

-CAT +3.7% (earnings, guidance)

-QUAD +3.1% (earnings, guidance)

-PSN +2.8% (earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-SMCI -18% (prelim earnings, guidance)

-TENB -16% (earnings, guidance)

-WNC -15% (earnings, guidance)

-SNAP -14% (earnings, color)

-FSLR -13% (earnings, guidance)

-HRZN -11% (earnings)

-SBUX -9.2% (earnings, color)

-NCLH -8.8% (earnings, guidance)

-UNM -8.5% (earnings, guidance)

-LC -7.2% (earnings, guidance)

-VICR -7.2% (earnings)

-RBBN -5.6% (earnings, guidance)

-PTIX -3.7% (announces 1-for-14 reverse stock split)

-OSK -3.6% (earnings)

-BKNG -3.2% (earnings, guidance)

-FIBK -3.2% (earnings)

-IP -2.6% (earnings, guidance)

-FDP -2.2% (earnings)

-OKE -2.2% (earnings, guidance)

Most active premarket ETFs as of 8:24 a.m. ET:

Premarket percentage movers at 8:41 a.m. ET:

States 2.0 Act: A call for federal marijuana descheduling

and...

Bonus — Here are some great links:

CappNotes

The Beach Ball Effect

Buying the Base in BABA

Momentum Is Building

Technical Tuesday

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are lower. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower: NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%. Bond yields are largely unchanged; USD is higher. Commodities are mostly mixed: Oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable.

and...

Stocks staged a rally in the afternoon yesterday amid the combination of better-than-feared earnings (HON, SHW), further de-escalation of tariffs headlines (the White House said it will ease tariff pressure on automakers with reimbursement for taxes on foreign auto parts; Lutnick said one trade deal is done and waiting approval; see here and here), lower yields (10y is 4bp lower amid weaker labor market and sentiment data). Today, the most important catalysts are tech earnings after the bell (META, MSFT and QCOM; see preview from JPM Spec Sales team below). We will also receive March PCE and the second revision of 1Q GDP; Feroli’s preview is further down below. With Lutnick indicating a trade deal is pending approval and the positive pattern in Mag 7 earnings so far, we hold the view that the risk/award is skewed to the positive side.

Added to index shorts:

* SPY $553.87

* QQQ $474.66

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is at 5.18% vs. 5.45% — still deep in overbought territory.

* Of a 4:25 a.m.-kind...

Shorting indices:

* SPY $553.26

* QQQ $473.93.