As of 4:22 p.m.:

Break in! 

Super Micro Computer SMCI preannounces and lowers its guidance...

Nvidia NVDA will be collateral damage. 

Low Volume

- NYSE volume 27% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 53% above its one-month average

- VIX index: down 3.66% to 24.23

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

NASD Advance Decline Ratio Intraday vs. SPY (lower chart)

I'm adding to my Tesla TSLA short at $292.

As previously posted, I have no position in Starbucks SBUX going into tonite's EPS report. 

Moved to medium-sized short GRNY.

Otherwise doing mostly research today.

Reshorting Tesla TSLA at $286.55.

With S&P cash +42 handles and at 5571 at high end of my 5500-5600 target I am adding to index short calls.

Break in!

Wolf Street howls about the jobs market.

Nvidia's NVDA shares are +$0.63:

White House Drug Czar Could Endorse Marijuana Legalization Under New Bill To Repeal 'Ludicrous' Restriction - Marijuana Moment

Getting my sealegs.

R

ricardo

18 minutes ago

One has to admit Trump has made a compelling case for companies to relocate or stay in America.

1) Great manufacturing company tax benefits in the new tax bill

2) Corporate tax rate going down to 15%

3) Less regulation

4) Lower energy costs and also reliable energy, better with drill baby drill

5) No tariffs

6) Closer proximity, less shipping costs to the American consumer

In theory and very possibly in reality this will result in continuing success in getting companies to come to our shores.

TechNova 

5 minutes ago

Not a single Factory will be built in America as a result of Donnie's actions.

1) The Tariffs are transitory. You make a wire transfer to WorldDefi, or you simply push back hard and the Tariffs are gone.

2) We do not have the Manufacturing Toolset that countries like China have. They have taken over 30 years to develop those techniques.

3) Labor costs in America make it impossible to manufacture most goods in the US in a cost effective manner.

4) American workers do not want the jobs that we are claiming will come back from China. We would rather drop off packages for Post Mates than turn tiny screws all day.

5) America is a Services driven economy. Higher wages, higher Margins.

6) Automation and AI, will make it so that only fully robotic manufacturing will ever happen here. Meaning a fractional amount of jobs will be created. We will not be re-employing our Coal mine workers into those jobs.

I have a business lunch to travel to today.

I will be out between 11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET.

DOROTHY:

I don't like this forest!

It's...

It's dark and creepy!

SCARECROW:

Of course, I don't know,

But I think it'll get darker

Before it gets lighter.

DOROTHY:

Do...

Do you suppose we'll meet

Any wild animals?

TIN MAN

Mmmm...we might.

DOROTHY

[Gasps]

SCARECROW

Animals that, that eat...straw?

TIN MAN

Uh, some,

But mostly lions and tigers and bears.

DOROTHY

Lions?

SCARECROW

And tigers?

TIN MAN

And bears!

DOROTHY

[Gasps] Lions, and tigers and bears!

Oh my!

DOROTHY, SCARECROW, TIN MAN

Lions and tigers and bears!

Algos and Machines and Bears... Oh My! Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! - "The Wizard of Oz" (1939) - YouTube

The action is increasingly random.

Not for old men.

Oh my.

* About the business media...

GOOGL is now trading well below where it was before the euphoria of the EPS release last Thursday.

For emphasis:

Miles Long in Analysis But Only Inches Deep

Apr 28, 2025 10:31 AM EDT

The media fanfare following Google's (GOOGL) "beat" was symptomatic of what is wrong with Fin TV.

Cheerleading, not analysis (never was there a discussion of a sharply lower rate of paid click growth - actually the lowest year over year percentage increase!) - was the prevailing theme of the shows' coverage.

I believe Google is now trading below the price it closed before the "beat."

Position: Long GOOGL VS

Shorting more GRNY at $18.88

From Peter Boockvar:

This does not read well

The April Dallas manufacturing index seen yesterday plummeted further to -35.8 from -16.3 vs the estimate of -17 and the comments from a variety of companies in differing industries was not a good read. I bolded for emphasis some of the standout lines. This is one that stood out the most from someone in the tech industry:

"If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It's chaos right now."

Chemical manufacturing

It is a very dynamic time. I agree with the approach and need to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. so that we have the internal capability for national security interests. The ability to forecast and to understand consumer confidence drivers to the basic materials, construction, automotive markets, etc., are the most difficult we have seen since the COVID era.

Tariff uncertainty and actual impact is likely to be significant for the business and ongoing projects.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

This has been a crazy few weeks in the news. We export about 20 percent of our production. Our largest customers are in the United Kingdom and France, but we also export to China and many other countries. We import a few raw materials, but this isn't directly significant. The current tariff negotiations are having an effect in several ways. We accelerated one order to China to beat the reciprocal tariffs, and we expect our China sales to go to zero until the tariff situation changes. We are seeing some European customers stock up on inventory in anticipation of future tariffs. Most of our U.S. customers continue to buy, but we have seen a 25 percent drop in incoming RFQs [requests for quotations] in April compared with the average of previous months. Assuming this continues, we expect to see roughly a 10–15 percent decline in sales in May. We believe that this is largely due to uncertainty in our customer base driven by the tariff situation and potential knock-on effects to the general economy.

There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty. Carve-outs for large electronics businesses (cellphones and laptops) leaves small business burdened to deal with tariffs on our own, which are likely to cause delays, cancellations and early product obsolescence on existing products and orders. We have already had to turn around and refuse shipments because customers cannot afford the tariffs, delaying our ability to build, which will eventually lead to job losses. If this continues for any length of time, many small companies are likely to be significantly hurt or even gone. If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It's chaos right now.

Please lower interest rates. We need it in order to boost the economy due to the uncertainty and tariffs.

President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon.

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

There is no stability in business, so it is difficult to plan. Thus, we are not making commitments for future growth, not knowing if or when future growth will exist.

Our backlog is not building. Bid activity is moderate, but projects are not being released/started.

There was a temporary supply hiccup in April on a key component; we expect it to resolve in the next month or two.

Food manufacturing

The current economic environment is confusing. President Trump keeps things in turmoil, and we do not know what he will do next. So far, import prices for raw materials have not increased. Food service and retail sales have maintained their growth projections.

Chaos at the federal level, tariffs and resulting raw ingredient costs, decimation of partner relationships due to canceled contracts "for convenience" along with stagflation concerns [are issues affecting our business]. DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] is needed. The DOGE without a follow-up plan does nothing for the domestic tranquility needed (stable arena for business to function within).

Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans.

It is unknown what effect the tariffs are going to have on the general economy. Luckily, we do not import or export many items (except for spices), so we are not directly impacted by the contemplated tariffs.

We are still worried about labor price increases due to the trade war and immigration.

Machinery manufacturing

Nothing is easy. Forecasting is extremely challenging in this time of uncertainty. Committing to growth initiatives is anxiety-riddled. Helping our employees keep beans on their table and a roof over their heads is harder. We believe the direction the current administration is leading our country is on target, but the pain to get there may be longer and more intense than originally anticipated.

We are experiencing a strong month and, hopefully, this trend will continue.

Due to tariffs, we do not know what to expect.

Miscellaneous manufacturing

There is too much uncertainty all over for any increases [in business] soon.

Tariffs and the general market have made decisions challenging. Items we are only able to source internationally are making our daily business decisions difficult. Raw materials have increased, and there is not an easy way to pass those increases to our customers.

Tariffs are causing uncertainty and a reduction in demand for our products. We buy all raw materials domestically but are still experiencing adverse business climate due to reduction in demand.

Tariffs may drive us out of business.

Tariffs [are an issue affecting our business].

Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing

Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. There was a better way to do this.

Paper manufacturing

We have seen continued slow order entry now for four months.

Plastics and rubber products manufacturing

Tariffs are impacting factory input costs significantly.

Primary metal manufacturing

Capital expenditures are focused on adding new product offerings.

The aluminum industry is currently in a holding pattern, awaiting final decisions on tariffs. If the Section 232 tariffs on Mexico and Canada remain in place, it would help level the playing field and remove their pricing advantage when selling into the U.S. However, if Mexico and Canada continue to receive exemptions—as they have since the initial implementation of Section 232 during the first Trump administration—it will likely lead to further job losses in our segment of the aluminum industry. Our company, for example, has put a multimillion-dollar project on hold until we receive clear direction on this issue. China is now building aluminum plants in Mexico to avoid tariffs if they ship from China. Our company is a proponent of tariffs to combat dumping and subsidies other countries are doing for shipments into the U.S.

Printing and related support activities

The tariff issue is a mess, and we are now starting to see vendors passing along increases, which we will have to in turn pass along to our customers. Because of this, we are very concerned about general business activity for the next six to nine months or until these trade agreements get worked out.

The administration’s tariff policy is insanity. It is creating havoc in the manufacturing business.

Textile product mills

Sales are down, and uncertainty is very high. We import raw materials and finished goods and are very nervous about tariff impacts (especially China). We will likely need to increase prices, which will likely hurt demand/sales. We are expecting to get hit on both the supply and demand side. There is a lot of uncertainty.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

We are unsure of the tariff impact.

There is too much uncertainty, including a possible recession. Interest rates are too high. The Federal Reserve always seems to be late for their own party.

On the consumer side and h/t to BH and DH for pointing this out, Lending Tree released the results last week of a Buy Now, Pay Later survey and these were the important points:

"More than 4 in 10 (41%) users of buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans say they paid late on one of them in the past year, up from 34% just a year ago."

"That’s just one of several troubling findings from our survey that asked people about their behaviors and perspectives around these popular loans. Along with increased late payments, we found a significant number of borrowers who take on several of these loans at one time, use them to buy groceries or takeout and believe that successfully managing one will boost their credit score. (Spoiler: It won’t … at least not yet.)"

"Nearly 1 in 4 BNPL users (23%) say they’ve had three or more active BNPL loans at one time. High-income people are the most likely income bracket to say so. Also, Gen Zers and millennials are twice as likely as baby boomers to say so. Meanwhile, 40% say they’ve never had more than one at a time." The bold was theirs.

"More users buy groceries with BNPL. 25% of BNPL users say they’ve used the loans to buy groceries. That’s up from 14% just a year ago, amid rising prices at the supermarket. One-third of Gen Z BNPL users say they’ve done so, making it the fourth-most common BNPL purchase for that age group, trailing clothing, technology and home decor." https://www.lendingtree.com/personal/buy-now-pay-later-loan-statistics/

Apartment List released this morning its National Rent Report covering April. For the 3rd straight month, new rent prices went up as they typically do seasonally this time of the year. The increase was .5% m/o/m though still down .3% y/o/y. And, "Despite the cooldown, the typical rent price remains 21% higher than its January 2021 level."

On the supply side, "our national vacancy index ticked up to 7%, setting a new record high in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017."

Bottom line, new rent increases should stay muted, particularly in the sunbelt states as that is where most of the new supply has come from. We'll get a sense of renewal rates from a bunch of multi family REITS that report earnings this week.

To some earnings calls/reports.

From Domino's Pizza whose comps fell .5% y/o/y in the quarter, "which was slightly below our expectations":

"We have a strong slate of initiatives primed and ready to go for the rest of the year, as we will continue to give customers what they want, which is more value in this challenging economic environment."

"We benefited from 1.8% of pricing, which was inclusive of high single digits in California. This was more than offset by negative traffic and a slight decline in our mix due to a higher carryout business that carries a lower ticket than delivery."

"Our carryout business comps were up 1% while delivery was down 1.5% in the quarter. Our delivery business continues to be impacted by macro pressures that are impacting the low income consumer."

From UPS who beat numbers and who, like many, of little visibility right now:

"Given the current macro economic uncertainty, the company is not providing any updates to its previously issued consolidated full year outlook."

GM is postponing its earnings call until Thursday and stopping their stock buybacks for now. Said the CFO to reporters, "Because the original guidance didn't include the impact from tariffs, prior guidance can't be relied upon. We will update when we have more information on tariffs."

Hilton lowered Q2 guidance after beating Q1 expectations. "We are pleased with our first quarter results, with strong bottom line performance, even with somewhat weaker macroeconomic conditions."

Coca Cola, a stock we own, slightly beat numbers and said "Despite some pressure in key developed markets, the power of our global footprint allowed us to successfully navigate a complex external environment."

Paypal beat numbers handily but they are "maintaining full year guidance due to uncertainty in the global macro environment despite a strong start to the year."

The April Eurozone Economic Confidence index fell to 93.6 from 95 and below the estimate of 94.5. That is now just .1 pt from matching the lowest level since 2020. Every component weakened m/o/m which includes manufacturing, services, consumer, retail and construction confidence. A global trade war doesn't help.

Eurozone Economic Confidence Index

Spain said its April CPI was higher by .6% m/o/m, twice the estimate and up by 2.2% y/o/y. The core rate grew by 2.4%. Spanish yields though are down a touch but one wonders if other inflation stats now surprise to the upside whether that means the end of ECB rate cuts for now. And let's find out why the lights turned off yesterday.

The Spanish economy has been a bright spot in the Eurozone and it grew by .6% q/o/q and 2.8% y/o/y. While just below expectations, it's well outperforming its regional peers.

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are modestly higher. TSLA +1.0% pre-mkt, followed by MSFT +0.5% and AMZN +0.5%. Bond yields and USD are higher; 2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 1.6bp, 2.9bp, 2.7bp higher. Commodities are mixed with Oil lower, Base Metals higher, and Precious Metals mixed. WSJ reported that Trump may ease his auto tariffs today; GM/F+0.9% pre-market. Scott Bessent set July 4 as the goal to pass Trump’s tax cut package; he will announce the debt-ceiling x date this week or next. Today, the key macro focus will be JOLTS Job Openings and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence.

and...

Stocks were relatively quiet yesterday; SPX finished the day largely unchanged. A few catalysts that drove the selloff around noon, but stocks managed to have a healthy comeback later in the afternoon: NVDA fell -2.1% on headlines about the new AI chip from China’s Huawei; Dallas Fed Mfg Index fell to a 5-year low of -35.8 vs. -17.0 survey and -16.3 prior. Since market close, the main headline was a WSJ article reported that Trump may ease his auto tariffs today.

Key macro focus today will be JOLTS and Consumer Confidence; investors are waiting for the major Tech earnings in the next two days: META, MSFT and QCOM tomorrow; AAPL and AMZN on Thursday. US Market Intelligence flipped back to bullish yesterday; full notes is further below (originally published in the Apr 28 Morning Briefing).

11 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 6-Week Bill Auction

Most active prmarket ETFs as of 8:19 a.m. ET:

Upside:

-HIMS +30% (signs long-term collaboration with Novo Nordisk)

-LEG +16% (earnings, guidance; restructuring plan unchanged)

-BYON +14% (earnings)

-TVGN +14% (reaffirms oncology top-line revenue forecast of $1B in launch year and cumulative 5-yr estimate $10-14B)

-MBRX +13% (announces New Pre-Clinical Data for Annamycin Demonstrating Market Expansion Potential Including Treatment for Pancreatic Cancer)

-NE +9.1% (earnings, guidance)

-OPCH +6.2% (earnings, guidance)

-THC +5.7% (earnings, guidance)

-RCL +5.1% (earnings, guidance)

-ALOT +5.0% (awarded $10M multi-year defense industry contract)

-OKTA +4.2% (to replace BERY in S&P MidCap 400 Index, effective May 1st)

-HON +3.9% (earnings, guidance)

-CCK +3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-SPGI +3.5% (earnings, guidance; announces planned spin-off of Mobility Division)

-CTMX +3.1% (presents Preclinical Data for mRNA Encoded Masked IL-12 Molecule in Collaboration with Moderna at AACR Annual Meeting)

-NWBI +3.4% (earnings)

-WWD +3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-XYL +2.7% (earnings, guidance)

-ABG +2.5% (earnings)

Downside:

-UCTT -12% (earnings, guidance)

-EAT -7.6% (earnings, guidance)

-NXPI -7.4% (earnings, guidance)

-PCAR -6.5% (earnings, guidance)

-SPOT -5.8% (earnings, guidance)

-SANM -5.7% (earnings, guidance)

-SYY -5.2% (earnings, guidance)

-TDTH -5.0% (earnings, guidance)

-PYPL -3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-ARHS -2.2% (appoints Michael Lee CFO)

-PII -2.2% (earnings, guidance)

-UFPI -2.1% (earnings, guidance)

Premarket percentage movers at 8:37 a.m. ET:

DK

Dougie Kass

STAFF

1 hour ago

I sent these emails to Scott Wapner yesterday and this morning: 

Scott

not ad hominem but, seriously...

as i warned (see below)- bill baruch confidentally recommended SPOT on yesterdays HALFTIME after a huge run up and solely based on the price momentum

he has no process and does no fundamental research

the co missed last night and is -10% (-$50)

this hurts viewers.

eom

DAK

Sent yesterday afternoon to Scott:

Bill Baruch buys SPOT after a run in a few weeks of $115/share?

And in front of EPS.

Is that a great percentage bet?

Isnt this just a guess (without insight to the EPS results tomorrow)?

What is the process besides looking at the chart?

I think you were correct in disputing his technical analysis.

DC

douglas cassel

8 minutes ago

I am reluctant to give investment advice to friends and family based on the possibility of being wrong. I never give advice without follow up suggestions about having a plan if things don't work out.

The hubris of people who recommend stocks in such a cavalier manner to strangers is truly incomprehensible to me. I have found that many people will keep a stock I suggested, long after I sold it and forgot about it. People might do this out of laziness or some permutation of the "buy and hold" advice they once heard. Not understanding this phenomena can undermine trust and relationships. It would be interesting to take one of these TV jokers who pushed some stock that subsequently failed to court, and have a jury decide if they behaved with wanton and reckless behavior. That might improve things :-).

* Elon Musk's DOGE effort, as I forecast, was B.S.

From my 15 Surprises for 2025 Doug Kass: My 15 Big Surprises for 2025 - TheStreet Pro :

Surprise #2: The "other" romance, between Trump/Musk, doesn't make it past Spring 2025.

National protests and demonstrations emerge and demands from a wide array of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties (including conservatives and liberals) call for "ousting" Elon Musk, an unelected official, from playing such a dominant role in the U.S. government.

Bernie Sanders, taking the Senate's mantle of opposition to Musk, tweets about Elon Musk's and other billionaires' outsized role in the government:

"The precedent set in the last few months should upset every American who believes in our democratic form of government. In 2024, just 150 billionaire families spent almost $2 billion to purchase political candidates. Since the election in November, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg got $300 billion richer and are now worth $1 trillion combined. It appears that from now on no major legislation can be passed without the approval of Elon Musk, the wealthiest person in our country. That's not Democracy, it's Oligarchy. We must fight for an economy that works for all, not just the few. Elon Musk is an unelected official that is essentially acting a the President of the United States. We must pass legislation that changes this!"

Funded by George Soros, the law firm Boies, Schiller & Flexner launches a suit restricting the role of unelected officials without official positions in the Administration (like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy). The suit ends up going to the Supreme Court but is unresolved by year-end.

Reading the room (and increasingly uncomfortable with Musk's nororiety), President Trump begins to be openly critical of Musk and finally abandons him entirely.

Musk lashes out and retaliates by forming his own party and has a nervous breakdown.

Separately, Tesla (TSLA) makes little progress in "full self driving." The U.S. government takes away the $7,500 tax credit, competition from China intensifies, unit sales drop by double digits and Tesla's profits collapse. In addition, an "accounting issue" (related to warranties) is uncovered by a short-oriented research boutique. All these factors cause the shares of TSLA to drop to $100/share.

Elon Musk's non-Tesla investments suffer from reduced U.S. government support.

Musk grows ever more unhinged throughout 2025 — his mother attempts a family intervention.

Surprise #5: Amid weakening domestic economic growth, planned austerity measures (and reduced fiscal spending/support), recommended by DOGE, are unsuccessful and abandoned.

* I am looking for an entry point to reshort TSLA...

I am an anti Teslite! The Best of Kramer - The Anti Dentite

I will not invest in Europe:

No forward profit guidance from Brinker EAT, United Parcel UPS, Gneral Motors GM, etc. this morning.

Raise your hands if you think consensus 2025 S&P EPS growth of low double digits is plausible?

I thought so... very few hands.

In the premarket I added to my KO short at $72.65 after the company released its Q1 EPS.

This is a podcast Tom Lee and the bullish cabal should pay attention to:

* Given uncertainties of policy, expect more suspensions of share buybacks ahead...

The general consensus that rich balance sheets will produce buybacks might be premature (see below):

Given the uncertainties of policy (and their economic consequences), expect more companies to pause their company buyback programs. (Remember buybacks was one of the cornerstones of bullish market narrative.)

General Motors GM just paused their buyback program.

GM's shares are down 3% in premarket trading.

Bonus — Here are some great links:

A View From the Floor

Jazzy Jeff Hisch on May 

Zweig Breadth Thrust

Green Shoots

Move over Benny Goodman, Duke Ellington and Cab Calloway.

I give you the S&P 500 Index:

The General Motors GM earnings release (just now) underscores the uncertainty of future profitability in an uncertain world of policy:

GM releases 2025 first-quarter results and reschedules conference call to Thursday, May 1 | General Motors Company

Note: The Jewish year 5271 in the Gregorian calendar corresponds to the year 1511.

1511 was a recessionary year in the U.S. and equities fell by over -25% (kidding)!

* As she said, "the truth is plain to see"

Note: A little known fact, the singing group Procol Harum was a take-off (and misspelling) from the Latin phrase procul harun, which means "far beyond these things." The song, "Whiter Shade of Pale" was one of the anthems of the Summer of Love in (1967) — it's a song about a boy who falls too hard for a girl he barely knows and is then rejected by her. 

We skipped the light fandango

Turned cartwheels 'cross the floor

I was feeling kinda seasick

But the crowd called out for more

The room was humming harder

As the ceiling flew away

When we called out for another drink

The waiter brought a tray

And so it was that later

As the miller told his tale

That her face, at first just ghostly

Turned a whiter shade of pale

- Procol Harum, A Whiter Shade of Pale

The S&P Short Range fell into a deeper overbought — at 5.45% vs. 5.22%.

Gaetz on Cannabis Descheduling: