It was a great week trading and investing.

Thanks for reading my stuff. I hope I provided value.

Enjoy the long holiday weekend.

Happy Easter.

Be safe.

At 4:37 p.m.:

Volume and VIX

- NYSE volume 13% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 22% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 9.16% to 29.65

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Wolf Street howls about Tesla's TSLA failed Cybertruck. 

Adding to individual cannabis names now.

* RSP +1.45%

* IWM +1.10%

* SPY +0.86%

* QQQ +0.51%

I have a company call between 2-3 p.m. today.

Radio silence during the timeframe.

I have taken a small trading short rental in Netflix NFLX at $977.94.

Expectations are universally optimistic for some rather superficial and generally recognized reasons, imho.

Just watch FIN TV.

I am putting on a QQQ $445 straddle for May now.

From TerrAscend's chairman, Jason Wild:

Here are today's "things:"

* In technology: long adds AMZN $173.38, GOOGL $150.27. Sold MSFT $373.23 and shorted May calls.

* FInancial buys: IBKR $159.30, KKR $103.22, APO $126, AXP $248.70, BX $130.84.

* Added to MSOS at $2.31.

* Initiated longs in hombuilders: KBH $50.91, PHM $94.33, TOL $93.01 and GRBK $55.75. Added to JOE at $42.56. 

- NYSE volume 6% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 18% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 0.98% to 32.32

Adding further to IWM on the market whoosh lower.

I have initiated longs in KBH and PHM in the homebuilding sector.

This makes for four positions.

MT

make trax

18 minutes ago

Doug, I agree with you on the curious nature of those write downs. The NVDA 8K says the following:"On April 9, 2025, the U.S. government, or USG, informed NVIDIA Corporation, or the Company, that the USG requires a license for export to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries, or to companies headquartered or with an ultimate parent therein, of the Company’s H20 integrated circuits and any other circuits achieving the H20’s memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, or combination thereof. 

The USG indicated that the license requirement addresses the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China. On April 14, 2025, the USG informed the Company that the license requirement will be in effect for the indefinite future.

The Company’s first quarter of fiscal year 2026 ends on April 27, 2025. First quarter results are expected to include up to approximately $5.5 billion of charges associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves."

These two facts were placed, one after the other in an 8K. NVDA did not link these two statements. The second paragraph does not begin with "As a result...".

It must be inferred that the write down is because of the USG license because NVDA doesn't state any reason for the write down.

This is a very curious way to write an 8K and suggests that the real reason for the write down isn't paragraph one.

Long TOL and GRBK.

From Peter Boockvar:

Let's hear what they have to say

Today's note will be mostly a dive into what companies themselves are saying about the state of things.

In a Bloomberg story yesterday I saw that Ford sent a memo to its dealer network and said "we anticipate the need to make vehicle pricing adjustments in the future, which is expected to happen with May production." Those vehicles will arrive on dealer lots a few months after and assume that those 'pricing adjustments' will be higher.

From Hermes on how they will deal with tariffs. "We are going to fully offset the impact of these new duties by increasing our selling prices in the United States from May 1, across all our business lines."

"And since the 9th of April, we have an extra 10% tariff, because that's what is applicable to the EU. But we've compensated the gross effect of that extra 10% by increasing our prices in the US. And we'll do so from May 1. And we'll do this across all the different divisions and businesses, that price increase." Get your bags while you can.

On their broader business, "At the end of March 2025, all regions posted growth...We have Asia, ex Japan, that is at plus 1% despite a particularly high comparison basis and despite the slowdown in traffic in Greater China since the end of Q1, 2024...Americas, plus 11%, posted good growth following an exceptional performance in Q4, '24, supported in particular by the solid momentum in the US in March."

"Europe, excluding France, is at plus 13%. France, plus 14%, good results, thanks to sustained local demand and dynamic tourist flows."

As for business in April in light of everything going on, "At the moment, there is no changes in that trend for early April, which might not be very representative because we only have two weeks worth of figures. But we don't see any changes in trends." We of course we don't know to what extent people are buying now before prices rise though.

From Alcoa and talking about tariffs on aluminum that instead of helping them, is hurting them:

"While the US Section 232 tariff structure has been in place for some time in March, the tariff increased from 10% to 25% and the exemption for Canadian metal imported into the US was removed. This is the most material impact to Alcoa as approximately 70% of our aluminum produced in Canada is destined for US customers and is now subject to 25% tariff costs, which totals an estimated $400 million to $425 million annually. Of course, there is a higher Midwest premium, which offsets some of this cost and certainly benefits our US smelters, but currently the net annual result is approximately $100 million negative for our business."

That's not all as "While alumina and other raw materials are excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, there is a portion of our input materials provided by Chinese suppliers that is now subject to the high reciprocal tariff. We expect these tariffs will increase our input costs by $10 million to $15 million annually, as there are no suitable replacement suppliers."

I'd bet you are going to hear a lot about "there are no suitable replacement suppliers" from many different businesses when talking about some China imports.

And what would it look like for Alcoa to bring more production back to the US? "In 2024, the US imported approximately 4.2 million metric tons of primary aluminum, with imports of Canadian aluminum representing approximately 70% or 2.9 million metric tons. The four operating smelters in the US produce 700,000 metric tons of aluminum each year. If all item smelting capacity in the US would restart, which is approximately 600,000 metric tons, the US would still be short 3.6 million metric tons. It takes many years to build a new smelter, and at least five to six smelters would be required to address the US demand for primary aluminum. These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover dams. Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US."

Lastly with Alcoa, "It's hard to make a restart decision based on a tariff that can change, and I really can't comment on the stickiness (of the tariffs), because we've seen the volatility of discussions around the tariffs over the last 60 days. So we just don't know whether they will stick, and we wouldn't necessarily make a decision to restart capacity simply based on tariffs just because they can change."

From United Airlines:

"It's clear the softer macroeconomic environment is driving both volatility in the market and softer demand for travel."

"As we would expect in times of economic weakness, we saw the weakness magnified on off-peak flights...That's why we were canceling more off-peak flying and lower utilization going forward. Weakness in the main cabin was somewhat offset by premium performance."

"In the last few weeks, we have reduced domestic capacity for the summer in our sell-in schedule by 3 points, with 1 more point to be removed shortly."

While most of our international travel demand is US based, we are seeing modest declines in non-US origin passenger volumes. For the 2nd quarter, international passengers originated in Europe are currently booked 6% lower than last year. Canadian origin passenger volumes are slightly worse, down 9% y/o/y. For United, US origin demand has more than compensated for these reductions."

"So far, we have seen no deterioration in high-end consumers' willingness to purchase a premium experience. We attribute this to the fact that the economic uncertainty has a larger impact on more budget minded discretionary travelers than those seeking a premium experience." I'll add, this upper income cohort is a must watch if the US stock market continues to have shaky legs.

From CSX:

"demand remains fairly stable, but the near-term effects of rapidly changing trade and tariff policies are uncertain, which makes it difficult to project a reasonable range." And again, we'll have to see to what extent they are experiencing a pull forward of ordering.

From DR Horton, whose stock is down pre-market:

"The 2025 spring selling season started slower than expected as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence...Our tenured operators are responding appropriately to market conditions by increasing sales incentives where necessary to drive traffic and incremental sales, while carefully balancing pace vs price to maximize returns."

From AmEx, whose stock is up pre-market:

"Our performance across key areas, including Card Member spending, customer retention, demand for our premium products, and credit performance, continued to be strong across our customer base, consistent with and in many cases better than what we saw in 2024." With their upper income customers, AmEx is a must watch name.

"Consolidated provisions for credit losses were $1.2 billion, compared with $1.3 billion a year ago. The decrease reflected a modest net reserve release during the quarter compared to a net reserve build a year ago, partially offset by higher net write-offs driven by growth in Total loans and Card Member receivables. The first quarter net write off rate was 2.1%, flat y/o/y."

Here were the key comments from the Bank of Canada statement as they left their policy rate unchanged as expected. Jay Powell can easily use the same words for his May statement and it would fully apply.

"The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally."

"Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs."

"Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians." The Canadian dollar has recaptured over the past month all of what it lost post election vs the US dollar. And TSX index is down just 2.5% year to date. The Canadian domiciled company we own and like is Canadian Natural Resources along with some gold miners like Agnico Eagle.

The Bank of Korea also kept its base rate unchanged at 2.75% as expected but hinted at a cut to come at their next meeting on May 29th. They are flying blind too.

Added to private equity stocks on early weakness.

For a rally I prefer RSP and IWM (I initiated purchase yesterday) over the QQQs.

Yesterday I added to MSFT.

However with the continued Azure slowdown I have halved my common long and sold May calls against the balance of my position.

So I am delta neutral in the name.

Upside:

-QURE +48% (FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation Granted to AMT-130 for Treatment of Huntington’s Disease)

-HTZ +22% (momentum following Pershing Square stake disclosure)

-ADGM +20% (receives FDA Breakthrough Device Designation for the vCLASTM Cryoablation System)

-LLY +12% (Oral GLP-1, orforglipron, demonstrated statistically significant efficacy results and a safety profile consistent with injectable GLP-1 medicines in successful Phase 3 trial)

-KOS +7.5% (announces the first cargo of liquified natural gas (LNG) has been safely loaded from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project, offshore Mauritania & Senegal)

-RTO +5.5% (reports revenue)

-WRBY +5.1% (Loop Capital Raised WRBY to Buy from Hold, price target: $27)

-SCHW +4.4% (earnings, color)

-TSM +3.1% (earnings, guidance)

-RF +3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-SLG +2.9% (earnings)

-REXR +2.6% (earnings, guidance)

-UMAC +2.4% (momentum)

Downside:

-UNH -20% (earnings, guidance)

-GPN -9.7% (guidance)

-SNA -7.4% (earnings, guidance)

-MAN -6.1% (earnings, guidance)

-VKTX -4.5% (weakness following LLY drug data)

-STT -3.3 % (earnings)

-FOR -3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-INFY -2.9% (earnings, guidance)

-DHI -2.7% (earnings, guidance)

-TCBI -2.5% (earnings)

-AA -1.9% (earnings, guidance)

Most active premarket ETFs as of 8:34 a.m. ET:

Thursday 11:45 a.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) speaks on "Cybersecurity in the Banking System" and participates in moderated discussion before the State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability (Text available. Q&A from moderator and audience);

Friday 11 a.m.: Fed Bank of San Francisco President Daly (Non-Voter)participates in moderated conversation before the University of California at Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics' Spring 2025 Policy Advisory Board meeting, Berkeley, CA (No prepared remarks. No group media interview. Livestream at https://www.frbsf.org/news-and-media/events/2025/04/mary-c-daly-uc-berkeley-fisher-center-for-real-estate-urban-economics-2025/)

Premarket percentage movers with decliners led by health insurers as of 8:09 a.m. ET:

I added to BX (paid up) AXP (paid down) after the respective EPS releases.

Also I failed to mention that I initiated a long position in IBKR on yesterday's weakness (-10%).

Bipartisan Pennsylvania Lawmakers Announce New Plan To Legalize Marijuana This Year

* I find the AMD and NVDA write downs as weird (and perhaps foreshadowing)

* There is a one point play in football!

Continuing on the football theme TheStreet Pro, this is as much of a football point as an artificial intelligence/large language model point. There is actually a one-point play in football; I had no idea, although it has never actually happened in the NFL, it has happened in college and is possible, although not probable. See: Football 101: The one-point safety.

If LLMs have one advantage over humans, it is their ability to scour the entire internet for content. I know football pretty well and had no idea about this rule. If you think of LLMs as a database of internet content, that are searchable with natural language queries, and can regurgitate content with prepositions mixed in (glorified autocomplete), the LLMs should have had a massive advantage, and been “aware” of the notion that a one-point play in theory exists. And the fact that the one-point play exists, should have been incorporated into the answers. But not a single LLM I queried did that. Even with the ability to “train” and index (euphemism for steal) the entirety of the internet.

But a human (and subscriber) did, who read my column and mentioned that a one-point play does in fact exist. Apparently, not only can a human brain think better, it is also a better database/information repository/storage than billions of dollars of electronic equipment. The human brain can also do this with a tiny tiny fraction of the power requirement – just our food. 2,000 calories per day translates into 0.097 watts of electrical power expended over 24 hours. Almost nothing. I hesitate to think how much power my queries consumed, to NOT be able to add to 16 no less!

Related note: I find the write-downs (oddly at the same time) between AMD and NVDA curious. These things also take time to process, given the legal disclosure docs need to be filed. And it is unclear to me if they were necessitated, or an excuse for weaker performance and accounting gimmick to temporarily bury some cost.

Hard to know, haven’t dug into it enough, but something seems odd to me.

Another related note, this just out. And writing code is a lot easier than many things the LLMs are purported to be able to do, because unlike language and thought, code is highly rules and logic based. Read this from Gary Marcus' Marcus on AI:

The rest is at Marcus on AI.

If you ever questioned my criticism that Jim Cramer — supposedly an independent journalist — is conflicted in his close relationships with managements (in order to seek continued access), here is Jim's early morning tweet on Nvidia and Jensen Huang:

S&P futures have moved from +63 (when I woke up) to only +14 handles now.

I am adding to:

* IWM $185.49

* RSP $161.77

From Charlie:

As noted in my tweets and in "Things I Did Today," throughout yesterday's trading session, especially in the whoosh lower, I positioned my hedge fund for a modest rally in equities over the near term.

I did so in buying RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF), IWM and selected large-cap technology (MSFT, AMZN, META and MSFT).

Bonus — Here are some great links:

A Bear Market Case

The Shiny Rock (Gold) Is Shining

High VIX, High Stakes

The Trend Following Moron

Best and Worst Stocks to Own After Easter