* Home, home on the range

* Out of indices now

I just took off my last SPY and QQQ shorts at $537.63 and $456.14, respectively, for $3-$4 gains in less than an hour. (Add on the +$5 gain in SPY and +$7 gain in QQQ previously (a few hours ago) makes for +$8 and +$10 index wins in a matter of hours. (That's good enough for government work!))

From 3:10 p.m. sales

Selling the Rips, Buying the Dips

You can tell from my actions that I am selling the rips and buying the dips.

I am back shorting the indices:

* (SPY) $541.10

* (QQQ) $459.65

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

By Doug Kass Apr 14, 2025 3:10 PM EDT

Note: I am now out of all Index positions.

As of 4:38 p.m.:

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

From Charlie:

The Week in Charts (4/14/25) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

You can tell from my actions that I am selling the rips and buying the dips.

I am back shorting the indices:

* SPY $541.10

* QQQ $459.65

Cannabis Rescheduling ‘Delayed Not Dead’, Despite DEA’s Apathy - Business of Cannabis

Here are today's "things":

* Shorted SPY $542.69, covered at $537.03..

* Shorted QQQ $462.97, covered at $455.82.

* In technology: Short AAPL $209.45, covered at $203 and shorted CRWV $45.89

* Long more MSOS at $2.20, TCNNF at $3.36 and TSNDF at $0.27.

* Shorted KO $71.855

Adding further to MSOS at $2.20.

I just covered today's Apple AAPL short at $203 for a fast +$6 1/2/share gain.

From earlier:

Apple Short

Back short (AAPL) at $209.44.

Position: Short AAPL VS

By Doug Kass Apr 14, 2025 9:36 AM EDT

As of 11:30 a.m.:

With S&P cash up by only +25 handles and down by -70 handles from the day's highs, I have covered my index shorts for a nice and short-term gain:

* Covered SPY $537.03

* Covered QQQ $455.82

Gun to my head we get some profit-taking today.

I have been adding an index short all morning on the notion...

Gun to my head we get some profit taking today.

I have been adding an Index short all morning on the notion...

- NYSE volume is 19% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume is 16% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 16.80% to 31.25

* SPY $543.74

* QQQ $463.30

I have a research meeting between 10-11 a.m. this morning.

Radio silence.

I am short CRWV at $45.66

More later this week on the name.

More Index shorts right before the opening (with S&P futures +101 handles):



* SPY $543.69

* QQQ $464.15

Back short AAPL at $209.44.

Another chart from Barchart:

Blackstone BX price target lowered to $150 from $222 at Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $150 from $222 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm reduced price targets by 24% on average across the alternative asset manager group on 10% lower FY26 EPS forecasts on average as well as lower P/E multiples given the view that "sluggish" capital markets raise risks to the "private markets flywheel."

Apollo Global APO price target lowered to $131 from $170 at Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Global to $131 from $170 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reduced price targets by 24% on average across the alternative asset manager group on 10% lower FY26 EPS forecasts on average as well as lower P/E multiples given the view that "sluggish" capital markets raise risks to the "private markets flywheel."

JPMorgan cuts Apple AAPL target, calls tariff update 'big relief' JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Apple to $245 from $270 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the latest updates from the Trump administration late on Friday, exempting smartphones and PCs from reciprocal tariffs, is a "big relief" for Apple. While the exemption will help return investor focus back to some of the company's medium-term drivers, "several concerns" remain from the developments over the last two weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan thinks these will "limit investors from immediately turning to any bull case" for Apple. Semiconductor tariffs are still to be announced and could impact Apple, adds the firm. JPMorgan updated its estimates for lower demand from the macro slowdown and potential further downside risk on the resumption of tariffs. It forecasts slowing demand from fiscal Q4 into fiscal 2026 and revised its fiscal 2026 and 2027 iPhone volume expectations to 232M and 242M, respectively, from 249M and 255M units prior.

Wells Fargo WFC price target lowered to $75 from $77 at Piper Sandler Piper Sandler analyst R. Scott Siefers lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $75 from $77 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results and updated guidance. The firm cites lower bank equity valuations since it last adjusted its price target.

Warner Bros. Discovery WBD price target lowered to $13 from $14 at KeyBanc KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel lowered the firm's price target on Warner Bros. Discovery to $13 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites lower estimates and valuation multiple. KeyBanc likes the defensive trades favoring Towers and Cable heading into Q1 earnings. It would be more cautious on Data Centers, Media, and Wireless. While KeyBanc's companies are generally safe relative to many other industries from a tariff standpoint, there will be an impact that it thinks will mostly be felt in Consumer spending. Lower Consumer spending could impact advertising, theme park growth, and capital spending - most notably for Data Centers, Wireless Carriers, and, to a lesser degree, Cable Operators.

Elanco ELAN price target lowered to $13 from $15 at Stifel Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Elanco to $13 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following survey work focused on recent innovation from the major Animal Health players.

Chewy CHWY price target lowered to $27 from $33 at Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank analyst Lee Horowitz lowered the firm's price target on Chewy to $27 from $33 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. While ultimate earnings cuts for Chewy are likely more benign than Amazon and Wayfair, given a generally resilient category and U.S. supply chain for the vast majority of its consumables business, the downside earnings risk from tariffs and slower category growth is properly reflected in shares at this point, the analyst tells investors in a research note

KKR KKR price target lowered to $114 from $156 at Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on KKR to $114 from $156 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reduced price targets by 24% on average across the alternative asset manager group on 10% lower FY26 EPS forecasts on average as well as lower P/E multiples given the view that "sluggish" capital markets raise risks to the "private markets flywheel."

Premarket percentage movers at 8:46 a.m. ET:

Upside:

-THRD +39% (announces Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution)

-VERV +24% (in 2H25, Verve expects to report final Heart-2 dose escalation data, dose the first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial for VERVE-102, and receive a decision from Eli Lilly and Company for PCSK9 opt-in; Announces Positive Initial Data from the Heart-2 Phase 1b Clinical Trial of VERVE-102, an In Vivo Base Editing Medicine Targeting PCSK9)

-VKTX +17% (PFE to discontinue development of danuglipron (PF-06882961), an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for chronic weight management)

-AREC +14% (unit ReElement Technologies Announces Progress on Private Patriotic Capital Financing, Commercial Equipment Expansion, and Strategic Outlook Amid China’s Critical Mineral Export Restrictions)

-IKT +12% (appoints David McIntyre CFO, effective immediately)

-BBY +10% (President Trump exempts multiple key electronic products from tariffs)

-CERT +10% (earnings, guidance)

-ELUT +8.8% (confirms no material impact from global tariffs)

-ANIX +6.6% (receives Notice of Allowance from U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for CAR-T Technology)

-AAPL +6.4% (President Trump exempts multiple key electronic products from tariffs)

-PLTR +5.5% (reportedly NATO acquires Palantir’s Maven Smart System (MSS NATO) with the system is expected to be operational within the next 30 days)

-FATE +4.8% (receives Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) Designation from FDA for FT819 to Treat Moderate to Severe Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE))

-INTC +4.0% (confirms it entered into a definitive agreement to sell 51% of its Altera business to Silver Lake based on ~$8.75B valuation)

-PTON +3.6% (Deutsche Bank Raised PTON to Buy from Hold, price target: $6.60 from $8.60)

-ESI +3.2% (Truist Raised ESI to Buy from Hold, price target: $24)

-NVDA +3.1% (President Trump exempts multiple key electronic products from tariffs; reportedly Nvidia and Alphabet invested into Safe Superintelligence (SSI), a startup co-founded by OpenAI's former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever)

-GS +2.5% (earnings, color)

-URGN +2.3% (announces Data Presentations at the American Urological Association 2025 Annual Meeting Highlighting Emerging Evidence Supporting Our Portfolio for Urothelial Cancers)

-LLY +2.2% (in 2H25, Verve expects to report final Heart-2 dose escalation data, dose the first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial for VERVE-102, and receive a decision from Eli Lilly and Company for PCSK9 opt-in; PFE to discontinue development of danuglipron (PF-06882961), an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for chronic weight management)

-AVGO +2.0% (President Trump exempts multiple key electronic products from tariffs)

Downside:

-SGBX -34% (prices $8M private placement for 20.4M units at $0.392 each)

-ADTX -13% (subsidiary Adimune announces results from Mayo Clinic Pre-Clinical Studies to Support FDA and European Regulatory Submissions for Type 1 Diabetes, Psoriasis, and Stiff Person Syndrome Human Trials)

-CRCT -3.5% (CitiGroup Cuts CRCT to Sell from Neutral, price target: $4)

Most active premarket ETFs as of 8:29 a.m. ET:

Noon: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce, Greer, SC (No new text. No livestream. No media Q&A);

1 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Waller (Voter) speaks about the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of St. Louis; 6:00PM: Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Harker (Non-Voter) speaks on "The Role of the Federal Reserve" before the Villanova School of Business Speaker Series, Villanova, PA (Livestream and text available. Audience Q&A expected. No media Q&A);

7:40 p.m.: Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic (Non-Voter) speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University, Atlanta, GA (Livestream available. Audience Q&A expected. No media Q&A. 

With S&P futures +84 handles I have added to my Index shorts:

* SPY $542.68

* QQQ $463.25

Here are three of my most important 15 Surprises for 2025 that seem likely to be emerging:

Surprise #2: The "other" romance, between Trump/Musk, doesn't make it past Spring, 2025.

National protests and demonstrations emerge and demands from a wide array of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties (including conservatives and liberals) call for "ousting" Elon Musk, an unelected official, from playing such a dominant role in the U.S. government.

Bernie Sanders, taking the Senate's mantle of opposition to Musk, tweets about Elon Musk's and other billionaires' outsized role in the government:

"The precedent set in the last few months should upset every American who believes in our democratic form of government. In 2024, just 150 billionaire families spent almost $2 billion to purchase political candidates. Since the election in November, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg got $300 billion richer and are now worth $1 trillion combined. It appears that from now on no major legislation can be passed without the approval of Elon Musk, the wealthiest person in our country. That's not Democracy, it's Oligarchy. We must fight for an economy that works for all, not just the few. Elon Musk is an unelected official that is essentially acting a the President of the United States. We must pass legislation that changes this!"

Funded by George Soros, the law firm Boies, Schiller & Flexner launches a suit restricting the role of unelected officials without official positions in the Administration (like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy). The suit ends up going to the Supreme Court but is unresolved by year-end.

Reading the room (and increasingly uncomfortable with Musk's nororiety), President Trump begins to be openly critical of Musk and finally abandons him entirely.

Musk lashes out and retaliates by forming his own party and has a nervous breakdown.

Separately, Tesla makes little progress in "full self driving." The U.S. government takes away the $7,500 tax credit, competition from China intensifies, unit sales drop by double digits and Tesla's profits collapse. In addition, an "accounting issue" (related to warranties) is uncovered by a short-oriented research boutique. All these factors cause the shares of (TSLA) to drop to $100/share.

Elon Musk's non-Tesla investments suffer from reduced U.S. government support.

Musk grows ever more unhinged throughout 2025 - his mother attempts a family intervention. 

Surprise #4: Relating to tariffs, while there are continued threats of robust tariffs directed at specific trading partners - they mostly serve as negotiating positions and do not get implemented.

However, an across-the-board 10% tariff is instituted - further contributing to additional inflationary pressure.

The bond vigilantes come out of hibernation and are ubiquitous next year.

Inflation reaccelerates and rises to above 4% by year-end 2025 (the yield on the 10 year Treasury note exceeds 5.5%) - the Administration considers price controls.

The Federal Reserve pauses in its rate cutting course and eventually reverses policy and tightens. President Trump attacks the Fed and seeks Jay Powell's resignation. Powell stands firm as Fed Chairman.The U.S. economy enters a recession in late 2025/early 2026 following a continued weakening of the economies of the European Union and China.

Surprise #5: Amid weakening domestic economic growth, planned austerity measures (and reduced fiscal spending/support), recommended by DOGE, are unsuccessful and abandoned.

With S&P futures +82 handles I added to my index shorts:

* SPY $541.85

* QQQ $462.91

The markets are "newsy" and unpredictable.

This morning, stock futures (+80 handles) are responding positively to the trump administration's changing tariff policy.

Meanwhile, yields are again rising.

That said, volume was weak on Friday's sharp advance:

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Stock and Bitcoin Market Analysis

Now Is the Time to Use Technical Analysis

Country ETFs Since Liberation Day

The Best Days and the Worst Days

I'm back shorting Coca-Cola KO at $71.60.

I don't know one serious thinker who is not growing concerned about the global economy, corporate profits and inflation.

Howard Marks and Ray Dalio on our economic challenges and a potential paradigm shift:

Howard Marks: The Collapse That Will Change A Generation - YouTube

In my last few monthly market outlook updates one common theme has been the likelihood of rising volatility:

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has slipped from -9.55% to -6.42%.

At around 4 a.m. I took a short rental in the indices:

*SPY $541.85

* QQQ $462.91