On cue, the S&P Short Range Oscillator erupts to -8.74% vs. -5.21% (at 4 p.m.).

That's a consequential oversold.

As of 4:21 p.m.:

I sure wish more would take ownership of their forecasts.

I sure wish "talking heads" would be less confident in their views:

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

NASD Advance-Decline Ratio (Intraday) (Blue) vs. SPY (Green)

I added further on the dip to SPY at $501.94 and QQQ at $422.10.

Adding to the retreat from the highs:

* SPY at $502.98.

* QQQ at $423.36.

From The Credit Strategist:

Now?

JeffI

Dougie considering the mess we are in… Shouldn't you lower your expected fair value range for the S&P?

When the facts change…

Dougie Kass

The "facts" as you are seeing them may have changed - but everything (including severe tariffs) that has occurred has been within my range of expectations.

My upside to 2025 S&P was +5% and downside has been -10% to -15%. I have been consistent with this.

We are now -15.5% so at the lower end of expectations and good enough for government work.

And yes slugflation (something you have been skeptical about) has been my baseline projection.

As to the generational compounders that I didnt play on the upside (as you repeatedly mentioned in comments) and expressed concern about often over the last few quarters are now, too, in my buying range.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

I might be wrong but averaging in.

I want to repost this tweet:

Added further to SPY at $496.83 and QQQ at $417.98 on retrace.

Here are today's "things":

All Buys:

* Indices: SPY $490.65 and QQQ $404.20.

* Financials: APO $104.31, BX 118.22, HOOD $30.65, JPM $201.32, KKR $87.35, MS $97.84.

* Technology: GOOGL $139.31, MSFT $348.12, AMZN $162.58, META $482.61.

* Cannabis: MSOS $2.05, TCNNF $3.17, CRLBF $0.57, VRNOF $0.51.

* Misc: SBUX $78.44

Mon, Apr 7 at 11:17 AM

Trump: 'Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!' - Truth Social post - 

I am sorry to say that the market is so volatile today that I can't possibly keep up with posting my trades on a timely basis.

- NYSE volume is 146% above its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume is 76% above its one-month average

-VIX: up 9.34% to 49.54

From Peter Boockvar:

It's clear now what this is really all about

While I was hoping the goal of this tariff policy was focused on reciprocity and lowering the overall rates that are charged to us via deals, the comments over the weekend from Hassett, Lutnick and Bessent reminded us again that this is all about the 'reordering' of global trade instead by punishing via higher costs thru tariffs on those companies, both domestic and foreign, that don't bring more manufacturing to the US.

Yes, we want to produce more here but doing it via lower regulations, lower corporate/income taxes, and the better training of skills, along with trade deals would have been so much more effective in knocking down trade barriers without blowing up the global economy.

For some reason, Vietnam continues to get beat up for its trade deficit with us. They send about $110b worth of goods to us while we send just $13b to them. But Vietnam is a country with a per capita income of about $4,000. What exactly can they afford to buy from us? Many there literally work 7 days a week making $10-15 a day and we're worried about our trade deficit with them? As more wealth is created there, they will buy more stuff from us but tariffs on them at a punitive rate will wreck their economy instead.

What if tariffs don't end up encouraging reshoring and does the opposite instead? In Friday's WSJ I read about Wisconsin based Husco "which makes engines and parts for automakers and other manufacturers" and has $500 million in revenues. They have three factories in the US, "as well as plants in India, China and Europe, which mostly produce for those regions." Rather than reshoring some of this production with tariffs, "the new tariffs are likely to lead Husco to shift some production out of its US factories. The new tariffs mean it will no longer be cost-effective to import components to make products for export." The CEO Austin Ramirez said, "It doesn't make any sense to do that, I'm going to have to make those products in another part of the world."

I'll argue too again, the obsession with a trade deficit and the belief that we're losing money when we have one is completely flawed. So, we have a nonsensical economic premise from which policy is being derived. Nothing good can come from that. I'll give this example again; Walmart has a large trade deficit with China by importing many goods from them that are sold in US stores. Is Walmart getting ripped off? No, as they benefit in terms of profits, we benefit as Walmart is the largest private sector employer in the country with about 1.6mm US employees, we get low cost products and China benefits on the manufacturing side.

And Nicole at Antonio's in Livingston, NJ who is cutting my hair on Friday, I'm going to have a trade deficit in services with her after I pay so she must be ripping me off.

Stretching out years from now in terms of time horizon, we also have to remind ourselves that about 75% of global GDP takes place outside of the US and will only grow over time. And, about 96% of the world's population lives outside the US. Our special privilege in this world of free market capitalism that has created the most prosperous and freest economy and society in the history of the world, with the foundation of the greatest living document in the world, that being the US Constitution, should not be taken for granted.

Also, I understand the frustration over wealth and income inequality that some of this stems from but where is the criticism of the Federal Reserve whose decades of easy money benefited those with assets at the same time turned the US housing market upside down via booms and busts and epic price inflation where for many young people right now it's unaffordable to buy a home. And all that misallocation of capital that cheap money incentivized.

As I did and I'm sure you did, we all read a ton of stuff on trade and tariffs over the weekend. I do though want to highlight the best thing I read on X and here is the link, 

The CNN Fear/Greed index closed Friday at just 4 and it can't go below zero so we're getting real close to a tradeable bottom. What happens after that bounce we'll of course have to see but earnings season will be a key determinant because who the heck can have any confidence on the economic and earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

I could give you some February data from overseas but it's so old news making it irrelevant.

He is now retreating from his criticism of Lutnick (who called Ackman?):

With S&P cash -218 handles I am adding to SPY $483.76 and QQQ $403.79

Right after the opening added to following longs: META $482.64, HOOD $30.02, SBUX $76.56 and MSFT $352.05.

Ackman vs. Lutnick:

Most active premarket ETFs at 8:29 a.m. ET:

Upside:

-SUNE +133% (files to sell up to 4.4M shares and warrants to purchase up to 17.4M shares)

-MESA +49% (to merge with Republic Airway in all-stock transaction)

-ALLO +6.2% (Phase 1 RESOLUTION Trial Initiation Planned for Mid-2025 with Initial Proof-of-Concept by Year-End 2025; Granted Three U.S. FDA Fast Track Designations (FTD) for ALLO-329, a Next-Generation Dual-Targeted CD19/CD70 Allogeneic CAR T, for the Treatment of Lupus, Myositis and Scleroderma)

-AVTE +4.4% (announces expected cash dividend of $67.6M – $69.6M for pre-Merger stockholders)

-QGEN +2.7% (prelim earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-STLA -8.7% (tariff concerns)

-PLTR -8.6% (UBS Cuts US AI stocks to Attractive from Most Attractive)

-COIN -8.5% (crypto weakness)

-GRRR -8.1% (partners with Toyota Material Handling Solutions)

-BABA -7.7% (tariff concerns)

-HURA -7.1% (appoints Dr. Bertrand Le Bourdonnec as Executive Vice President, Head of Drug Discovery, Early Development, and Program Management)

-TSLA -6.7% (tariff concerns)

-VFC -6.4% (CitiGroup Cuts VFC to Neutral from Buy, price target: $12)

-NVDA -6.0% (UBS Cuts US AI stocks to Attractive from Most Attractive)

-PTLO -6.0% (Baird Cuts PTLO to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $12)

-SHEL -5.8% (earnings, guidance)

-CAT -5.5% (UBS Cuts CAT to Sell from Neutral, price target: $243)

-RXO -4.7% (weakness persists following Oppenheimer downgrade)

-TGT -4.5% (hearing Baird Cuts TGT to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $110)

-NCLH -4.4% (announces long-term charter agreements for four vessels, each with purchase options)

-AAPL -4.2% (tariff concerns)

-SBUX -4.1% (Baird Cuts SBUX to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $85; said to be slowing its expansion in India amid tighter household budgets)

-CPRI -3.0% (reportedly could reach agreement to sell Versace to Prada this week for lower price than originally believed)

-JPM -2.9% (tariff concerns)

-DD -2.8% (China Market Regulator investigation)

Helps to explain the rally in futures...

I bought more JPMorgan JPM on Sunday night:

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Stock Market and Bitcoin Analysis

The Average Stock Is in a Bear Market

Utilities, Banks and Airlines

Takeaways From Fund Flows

Falling Knives

From Charlie:

The Week in Charts (4/6/25) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

This morning Elon Musk tweeted this anti-tariff lesson by Milton Friedman:

I am placing BX at $118.99, KKR at $87.50 and APO at $103.94 on my (long term) Recommend List (Watch List).

I purchased Robinhood HOOD last night (-$4) at $30.59.

I am placing HOOD on my Long Term Recommended List (BUY).

I am adding Microsoft MSFT to my Long Term Recommended List (Watch List) at $345 (where I purchased the shares last night).

When Buying Now...Think Buffett:

 I Take the Other Side of Cramer's Recommendation:

On Bill Ackman:

Ackman Reacts:

On Lutnick:

On Navarro:

To Marko:

To Wally:

I will take the other side of Jim Cramer's opinion/trade:

* This one sounds familiar...

The S&P Short Range Oscillator rose to a greater oversold — to -5.2% from -3.1%.