As of 4:18 p.m.:

Volume

- NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average;

- NASDAQ volume 18% below its one-month average;

- VIX index: up 5.85% to 21.71

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Here are today's "things":

* Long technology adds: AMZN $190.97, GOOGL $158.41, MSFT $384.24 and META $579.85.

* Purchased more FRPT $86.41.

Here is some sell-side coverage of a few of my names:

American Express price target lowered to $325 from $326 at BofA BofA lowered the firm's price target on American Express to $325 from $326 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted its Q1 and 2025 EPS estimates to $3.50 and $15.20 from $3.53 and $15.23, respectively, accounting for February results, primarily slightly higher net charge-offs.

Meta Platforms price target lowered to $710 from $750 at KeyBanc KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $710 from $750 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the firm has not lowered estimates, KeyBanc applied lower multiples to our advertising and real estate stocks to reflect greater macro uncertainty.

DeepSeek banned on U.S. government devices, Reuters reports The U.S. Commerce Department is banning Chinese AI model DeepSeek on government devices, according to a message seen by Reuters and two people familiar with the matter, Karen Freifeld reports. "To help keep Department of Commerce information systems safe, access to the new Chinese based AI DeepSeek is broadly prohibited on all GFE," said one mass email to staffers about their government-furnished devices. DeepSeek is a Chinese-built large-language open-source model that claims to rival offerings from Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI's ChatGPT and Meta Platforms (META) but using a much smaller budget.

Apple price target raised to $275 from $260 at Evercore ISI Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Apple to $275 from $260 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Apple remains positioned to sustain mid-single digit sales and low-to-mid teens free cash flow and EPS growth over the next several years with less volatility and high consistency, the analyst tells investors. Apple can sustain, if not expand, its current valuation given not just strong free cash generation but also their commitment to returning 100% to shareholders, the analyst added in the firm's fifth annual Apple Primer.

Tesla price target lowered to $320 from $440 at RBC Capital RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $320 from $440 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Much of the investor concerns around Tesla has centered on its recent delivery performance in January and February in Europe and China, but these can be overblown, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, RBC reduced its self-driving pricing and robotaxi penetration assumptions for Tesla, which results in the target cut. It now assumes Tesla full self-driving pricing drops to $50 per month in 2026 from $100 per month today. While RBC thinks it is "unwise to extrapolate too much from car demand dynamics," the firm points out Tesla is losing market share in Europe and China. Although the companys sales fell sharply in Europe and China, these regions represent a small portion of Tesla's total sales compared to their annual figure, RBC adds. Tesla's U.S. sales saw modest increases, RBC says.

Morgan Stanley faces internal issues after going big on DEI, WSJ says While corporate diversity initiatives across America have been caught in the crosshairs of legal activists and a Trump administration set on wiping them out, the backlash has come from within at Morgan Stanley, AnnaMaria Andriotis and Lauren Weber of The Wall Street Journal reports. Following George Floyd's murder in 2020, the bank created an Institue for Inclusion with external advisers to guide its efforts and pledged to boost the share of racial minorities in its executive ranks. Today, however, the bank faces discrimination accusations and lawsuits from both white and black workers, and criticism from staff who say efforts fell short or were too heavy-handed. 

* With Jensen Huang

 WATCH LIVE: GTC March 2025 Keynote with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang - YouTube

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens

Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens

Brown paper packages tied up with strings

These are a few of my favorite things

Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels

Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles

Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings

These are a few of my favorite things

- Rodgers and Hammerstein, My Favorite Things

* Favorite Investment Long - St Joe Company

* Favorite Investment Short - MicroStrategy

* Favorite Speculative Investment Long- TerrAscend

* Favorite Speculative Investment Short - Tesla

* Favorite ETFs - MSOS and PSIL

* Favorite Takeover Target - Fresh Pet

It is less important to question whether this is the second most important time of uncertainty in the last generation.

It is more important (and I think this is what Jim is missing) that the price-earnings multiples are substantially heightened today relative to other times of "uncertainty":

Masterhedge

Donald Trump has inflicted enormous long-term damage on America’s defence export industry, a lucrative earner worth $320bn (£250bn) a year in all its forms. Foreign defence sales are 10 times greater than US exports of liquefied natural gas.

First in line for collective repudiation is Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet. Mark Carney ordered a review of Canada’s order for 72 of these advanced aircraft within hours of becoming prime minister. It will determine whether “other options could better meet Canada’s needs”.

Nuno Melo, Portugal’s conservative defence minister, says the F-35 is no longer considered a safe choice to replace his country’s ageing F-16s. “We have to know that an ally will be on our side whatever the circumstances,” he told Público.

“The world has changed. This ally of ours, so predictable over the decades, could limit the use, maintenance, components, and everything needed to ensure that the aircraft are operational in all scenarios,” he said. Portugal is looking at a European alternative. Germany may be next.

“Nobody needs to buy an F-35,” said Tom Enders, ex-Airbus chief and now head of the German Council on Foreign Relations. He said Germany’s contract for these fighters was a misguided attempt by Angela Merkel to “appease” Trump during his first term. It should be cancelled forthwith.

Europe does not strictly need the US Patriot missile defence system either. The upgraded Franco-Italian SAMP/T rival is more or less “equivalent”.

“It is absolutely imperative that we free ourselves of dependence on US systems as far and as quickly as possible. We can’t simply close our eyes to the fact that this American government has become an adversary,” Mr Enders said in an explosive interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

He said Trump was likely to blackmail and coerce Europe in much the same way as he has coerced Ukraine. “No one believes any more that he will stand by Article 5 if Putin invades the Suwałki Gap,” he said.

One should be cautious reading too much into share price movements. But it is striking that Lockheed Martin’s stock has dropped 23pc since late October, while Dassault Aviation has almost doubled in dollar terms on talk of more orders for the Rafale. French missile-maker Thales is up 90pc.

The European defence sector has seen an explosive rise over the last month, pushed even higher by Germany’s coalition deal for €1 trillion (£840bn) of rearmament and infrastructure – to be ratified this week by a constitutional amendment to the debt brake.

* My forecast for the S&P Index in 2025 has been for an upside of +5% and a downside of between -10% and -15%...

The S&P Index is -5% on the year and the Nasdaq Index is -10% in 2025.

By my calculus (precision not intended) the upside reward vs. downside risk is back to being even/neutral.

As always, it is what equities you own and/or short. 

- NYSE volume is 17% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume is 14% below its one-month average.

- VIX index: + 7.41% to 22.03

Dougie Kass

STAFF

28 minutes ago

 R 

I have been arguing that "generational compounders" are only buys at a price in which there is a "margin of safety" and the reward v risk is attractive.

I got alot of pushback.

Look at the charts of AMZN MSFT NVDA META GOOGL et al

Case is not closed but almost.

* Added to FRPT $87.93

* Added to AMZN $190.96, GOOGL $158.41, META $579.85 and MSFT $384.24.

* More Tales About Nvidia NVDA...

From Peter Boockvar:

The most important industrial metal in the world knocking on record high price/Import prices and housing data

Before I get to housing starts, I need to mention the price of copper that is touching $5 per pound today. That might not mean much to many but we are just about hitting a record high dating back to the 1960's. I'd argue that copper is the most important industrial metal in the world in terms of its broad uses. I reiterate our bullish and long stance on commodities/stocks.

With gold breaking through $3,000 too, can Jay Powell & Co really have any confidence to do anything right now? They are of course not tomorrow but as we will also see the dot plot, can anyone really predict the coming months/quarters with any confidence whatsoever and different from the last time they tried to crystal ball the future? Little chance.

Also of note for the Fed to digest was the rise in February import prices with the US dollar now falling. They rose .4% m/o/m vs the forecast of no change. They are now up 2% y/o/y vs 1.8% in the month before. Prices ex food and energy also were up .4% m/o/m and now by 1.4% y/o/y. Price gains in 'industrial supplies' drove the increase so I assume this again was the front loading of shipping product ahead of tariffs but with commodity prices now rising too, something to watch from here post tariffs.

Housing starts in February totaled 1.501mm, well above the estimate of 1.385mm and up from 1.35mm in January (revised down by 16k) and vs 1.526mm in December. Single family starts got back what it lost in January and then a bit some at 1.108mm. Multi family starts, very volatile month to month, were 393k vs 355k in January, 437k in December and 284k in November.

Weather messed around with the data as starts (both single and multi family) in the Northeast fell by 50k in January but rebounded by 46k in February. The South had bad weather too and starts were 895k in December, 689k in January and 815k in February.

Permits were little changed m/o/m with single family at 992k, down 2k from the month before. Multi family totaled 464k vs 479k in January and at a 4 month low. Multi family construction rose massively over the past few years but those days are now over.

Upside:

-ADTX +27% (Appili Therapeutics updates going-private transaction with ADTX)

-HROW +21% (prelim earnings)

-CANF +9.1% (US FDA approves Namodenoson for Compassionate Use Treatment in a Pancreatic Cancer)

-NIO +4.4% (partering with CATL to build battery swapping network, with CATL advancing up to CNY2.5B in Nio Power)

-LUCD +4.1% (ENVET-BE Clinical Utility Study of EsoGuard Esophageal Precancer Testing Accepted for Peer-Reviewed Publication)

-TME +4.1% (earnings)

-GRAB +3.4% (Grab begins due diligence as acquisition talks continue for GOTO.ID)

-RL +3.2% (Goldman Sachs Raised RL to Buy from Neutral, price target: $286)

-BIDU +2.4% (Chinese ADR strength)

-LCID +2.3% (Morgan Stanley Raised LCID to Equal Weight from Underweight, price target: $3)

-ALVO +2.1% (US FDA accepts AVT03 BLA, proposed Biosimilar to Prolia and Xgeva)

Downside:

-SRPT -24% (shares that a young man with Duchenne muscular dystrophy has passed away following treatment with ELEVIDYS, having suffered acute liver failure; Acute liver injury is a known possible side effect of ELEVIDYS and other AAV-mediated gene therapies and is highlighted in the prescribing information)

-BBAI -8.6% (delays annual report; anticipates larger loss following accounting correction)

-HUYA -8.2% (earnings)

-HNRG -6.4% (earnings, color)

-TSLA -2.9% (downside momentum)

-ETR -2.6% (prices ~15.6M shares at $83.50/shr)

-BEKE -2.2% (earnings)

Most active premarket ETFs as of 8:24 a.m. ET:

From Peter Boockvar:

Yes, a one time step up in price but.../Germany on the cusp of passing its fiscal largess package

I agree with those that argue tariffs are technically a one time step up in price via how the tax gets passed through and thus not longer term inflationary but that is just the direct impact. I believe it is more nuanced than this and possibly sows the seeds for longer term price rises in some areas of the economy. Let's look at a few possible indirect, more longer-term inflationary impacts of tariffs.

Yesterday's NAHB home builder index for March fell to just 39 from 42 as you saw and 11 points below the breakeven level. Of particular note on the demand side was the 24 print for Prospective Buyers Traffic, matching the lowest since November 2023.

Where tariffs can have more of a longer-term influence is if it raises the price of construction enough that it impacts the supply of things we need, particularly new housing which is the largest component by far in the CPI. The NAHB chief economist said yesterday "Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs. Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home."

In the short term it seems that builders will have to eat that because "Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions" but once demand does come back, we'll have less housing supply. And on the multi family side as well which will lead to even higher prices.

I'll also extend this to the trucking industry after the Cass Freight shipments data came out yesterday which rebounded in February after the weakness in January. They said "While the outlook is fraught with uncertainty, and freight demand will be challenged by tariffs, we highlight a silver lining for the for-hire freight market amid rising recession risk. Elevated uncertainty may be turning the tide of private fleet capacity additions after along for-hire downturn." So, at some point one time tariffs will lead to higher trucking freight rates as capacity reductions speed up.

Ahead of the lower house vote today in the German parliament on the easing of the 'debt brake' that will lead to a large increase in borrowing and government spending and likely economic growth (Keynes style though) the euro is rising to a fresh 4 month high vs the US dollar at just under $1.10. Bund yields are up too with the 10 yr yield at 2.85%, but a few bps off the 2.90% print a few days ago. After passage, the bill will then go to the upper house. The DAX is up another 1% and by 17.5% ytd.

This upcoming fiscal spending increase in Germany helped to drive an almost doubling in the March ZEW investor confidence index on the German economy which went from 26 to 51.6. The estimate was 48.3. The Current Conditions though remain deeply negative at -87.6. The ZEW said "The brighter mood is likely due to positive signals regarding the future German fiscal policy, for example the agreement on the multi billion euro financial package for the federal budget. In particular, prospects for metal and steel manufacturers as well as the mechanical engineering sectors have improved. Last but not least, the 6th consecutive interest rate cut by the ECB means favorable financing conditions for private households and companies." I'll add, maybe as long rates have risen sharply instead, though still remain relatively low at under 3% still.

Imagine there's no tariffs,

It's easy if you try

No Mexico below us

Above us, only Canada and sky.

Imagine all the tariffs

Introduced for today

Imagine there's no more lumber

It isn't hard to do

Nothing to tax or import for

And no exports, too

Imagine there's no tariffs

Livin' life tax free

You may say I'm a dreamer

But I'm not the only one

I hope someday Canada will join us

And the world will be as one.

- Grandma Koufax

I am now watching the Chicago Cubs/Los Angeles Dodgers game, which highlights the opening day of the 2025 MLB Season.

So here is an important repost from last year:

For the Love of the Game: A Tribute to Baseball and Investing

* How can you not be romantic about baseball and investing?

* More lessons from the baseball diamond.

Humphrey Bogart once said that, "a hot dog at the game beats roast beef at the Ritz."

And Yogi Berra once exclaimed that "love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too."

I second those emotions.

Last night's New York Mets/Milwaukee Brewers game when The Amazins' Pete Alonso stunned the crowd with a three-run home run in the top of the ninth inning to advance to the next Playoff round (Mets vs Brewers highlights: Pete Alonso home run sends NY to NLDS (usatoday.com)).

That moment was a reminder of the beauty and excitement of baseball and the lack of predictability in sports. As Grandpa Koufax used to say, "Dougie, there are only two seasons: Winter and Baseball":

Baseball and stock market memories have been numerous over the years.

While baseball games are un-timed and the stock market trading session is timed, the unexpected outcomes and excitement are why some of us are so immersed in both activities.

As I will discuss below, there are similarities between baseball and investing. Enjoying success in both requires the ability to adapt. Only by being open to change can one have a true opportunity to get the most from one's talent in playing baseball and investing successfully.

As Yogi reminded us, both baseball and investing are 90% mental and (especially with the dominance of machines and algos) the other half is physical.

We wake up every morning and watch equity markets (at least) between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. and some of us watch ball games in the afternoons (less so these days!) and during the evenings -- with wonderful (and some less than wonderful, depending on your perspective) surprises:

Baseball Memories

Over history, the wonders of baseball have been numerous:

Shohei Ohtoni's greatest game at the plate in history GREATEST GAME EVER?!? Shohei Ohtani goes 6-FOR-6 with 3 HOMERS, 2 SB and 10 RBI! (Joins 50/50 club!) (youtube.com),

Willie Mays' "catch" Willie Mays makes "THE CATCH"! His famous over-the-shoulder grab is one of the best EVER! (youtube.com),

Ralph Branca's pitch and Bobby Thompson "shot heard 'round the world" Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard 'Round The World (youtube.com),

Cousin Sandy Koufax's ballet-like performance and perfect game (1965) CHC@LAD: Koufax's perfect, game called by Scully (youtube.com),

Babe Ruth calls his "shot" BABE RUTH'S (1932 WS) CALLED HOME RUN SHOT' RARE VIDEO & COMMENTARY (youtube.com),

Don Larsen's legendary perfect game in the 1956 World Series WS1956 Gm5: Scully calls Larsen's perfect game - YouTube ,

Bill Wambsganss' unassisted World Series triple play Bill "Wamby" Wambsganss, Only Unassisted Triple Play in MLB World Series History (1920) & Biography (youtube.com) ,

Carlton Fisk waves the ball fair Must C Classic: Fisk waives walk-off home run fair to win Game 6 of 1975 World Series - YouTube,

Bill Buckner's botched play on Mookie Wilson WS1986 Gm6: Scully calls Mookie Wilson's epic at-bat - YouTube ,

Hank Aaron's 715th home run Vin Scully calls Hank Aaron's historic 715th home run (youtube.com),

Pete Rose's 4,192th hit CINCINNATI REDS: Pete Rose, 4192 Record Breaking Hit of 1985 (youtube.com), and ...

Bill Mazeroski's winning home run in the 1960 World Series 1960 WS Game 7: Mazeroski wins World Series with homer - YouTube

Stock Market Memories

Like baseball, there have been amazing and memorable investing events, though Vin Scully never announced them ... like buying Nvidia (NVDA) at $2.32/share in 2016 (NVIDIA - 25 Year Stock Price History | NVDA | MacroTrends),

... and ...

... purchasing Tesla (TSLA) at $1.99/share in mid-2012, owning Amazon (AMZN) at $24/share in 2013, shorting Resorts International at $190/share in 1978 (and watching it go to zero) and many other shorts like Baldwin United, Enron, Tyco, Sino-Forest and, of course, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. And who could forget Soros' "breaking the bank of England?"

***

I have written many columns that compare baseball to the stock market. Here is one of my favorites:

Lessons From the Baseball Diamond

Tonite Dodgers Stadium will host the seventh game of the World Series for the first time ever.

Being related to Hall of Famer, Sandy Koufax, I bleed Dodger Blue.

I can't wait for tonite's game.

Over the last two decades I have written more than fifty columns noting the parallels between baseball and investing.

* Recommended Listening

* Playng Ball With Warren Buffett

* Rounding Third and Heading Home

* Forget Stocks Its Opening Day

* How Long Will The Joy In Mudville Last?

* Apple is Like Ty Cobb

* Who (Hu) Is On First!

* Never Fear Getting Back in the Game

* Practice Your Defense

* Take Me Out to the Ball Game For a Sense of History

Here is one of my favorites from more than two years ago:

Let's Go Yankees!

By Doug Kass Oct 4, 2024 10:45 AM EDT

From Charlie:

This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short-term traders:

From JPMorgan:

US: Stocks closed higher. Equities extended their gains last Friday with a robust rally across the globe. Thematically, High Short Interest, Potential Squeeze and Cyclicals were among the top outperformers, while Mag 7 lagged. NVDA (-1.8%), TSLA (-4.8%) and AMZN (-1.1%) were the notable underperformers today. Macro headlines were relatively muted: Trump hinted further negotiation progress on the Ukraine war and will speak to Putin tomorrow. Macro data were largely mixed: Core Retail Sales surprised to the upside despite a downside revision: 1.0% MoM vs. 0.3% survey vs. -1.0% prior (revised from -0.8%), while Empire Mfg and NAHB Housing index missed expectations.

and...

EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Equities staged a relief rally, continuing the recovery since last Friday. We saw a broad equities outperformance across the globe with 10 out of 11 sectors in SPX all finishing in the green. What drove today’s outperformance? We think this is a combination of: (i) the lack of Trump/tariffs headlines over the weekend and this Monday; (ii) a relief rebound given the near 10% selloff in equities; (iii) better-than-feared macro data. In fact, we think the first two probably play a bigger role than fundamental catalysts. While today’s Retail Sales still showedd resilient consumer spending, we need to see further clarity on trade policies to assess future economic outlooks. Kasman reminded us that there has been increasing dispersion between backward-looking data and the assessment of policy risks. Moreover, Empire Mfg and NAHB Housing Market Index both missed expectations.

* Financial stocks (especially private equity) led yesterday's market parade...

Late last week I purchased a number of individual equities, into the teeth of the market decline — mostly in the technology and financial sectors.

Here is a summary of some of my buys:

Technology: MSFT, AMZN (add on), GOOGL and META.

Financials: MS, GS, AXP, WFC, C, BAC and JPM.

Private Equity: APO, KKR and BX.

Miscellaneous: FRPT(common and calls), JOE (add on).

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Quarterly Expirations Are Usually Up Weeks 

America, The Envy of the World

China Takes the Wheel

The Bears Are Winning

Not CMT Lunch Hour

Part 1: Tesla Autopilot Runs Full Blast Into Wall With A Road Painted On It

Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has slipped from -5.95% to -3.30%.