As of 4:25 p.m. ET:

- NYSE volume 30% above its one-month average;

- NASDAQ volume 4% above its one-month average

- VIX: UP 19.60% to 27.95

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sector ETFs

% Movers

From ritcheycom:

Just remember in the Godfather, Clemenza telling Michael these things have to happen every 5-10 years. Maybe a good trade war will end up being a good thing after all. A reset. 

On second thought, here is a quick and abbreviated "Things I Did Today" :

* Short sales: PEP $159.34 and KO $73.19.

* Short covers: AAPL $225.73, ROAD $66.01, BOOT $101.10.

*Buys: MSFT $380.05, GOOGL $163.96, AXP $259.57, META $588.97, GS $529.28, MS $111.09, C $66.79, JPM $231.19, AMZN $194.11, HOOD $37.3, WFC $66.22 and BAC $39.71.

* Bought the Indices SPY / QQQ, but not done yet.

David Rosenberg on X:

I am too busy to do "Things," but I will publish all my transactions and prices early tomorrow morning!

Geiger Capital on X:

* Umm, Saylor...

Housekeeping item:

I am covering some MSTR at $236.59.

The shares are -$50.50 today.

At $259.60, I have purchased a trading long rental in American Express AXP.

The Kobeissi Letter on X: "For all of the technical traders out there: Tesla stock's, $TSLA, daily RSI is now down to ~21, just ~5 points away from its lowest level on record. For what it's worth, the daily RSI suggests $TSLA is near its most oversold level in history. Is this capitulation? https://t.co/2UsRdhANps" / X

We've been here before on December 18:

(3) Elon Musk on X: "There was (still is) a massive cyberattack against 𝕏. We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved. Tracing …" / X

With S&P cash -139 handles I am pressing the following individual long rentals: MS, GS, BAC, C, WFC, AMZN.

Mag 7:

I have covered my Apple AAPL short just now at $225.87.

I plan to reshort strength.

Elon Musk’s X suffers multiple outages

All very small positions:

* JPM $231.57

* GS $533.38

* MS $112.09

* WFC $67.04

* BAC $40.10

* C $67.40

Dougie Kass

Shorted KO $73.18 and PEP $159.34.

Tune in to MRKT CALL with Carter, Dan and Guy at 11 a.m.

Let's go to the tapes. Chart Check On Stocks As Nasdaq Enters Correction - YouTube

Be there or be square.

Just purchased HOOD at $38.85 (-$5).

I am working on a scale lower.

"They" loved it at $66 exactly one month ago.

Charts from 10:50 a.m. ET:

Repeating for Emphasis

Blame It on the Bossa Nova?

* No, no... blame it on market structure

Blame it on the bossa nova

With its magic spell

Blame it on the bossa nova

That he did so well

Oh, it all began with just one little dance

But soon it ended up a big romance

Blame it on the bossa nova

The dance of love

- Cynthia Weil and Barry Mann, Blame It On The Bossa Nova

You might want to blame the market decline on the Bossa Nova, but I blame it on market structure risks I have warned about for twelve months.

Market Structure Favors the Bold Now

As I often write, I am repeatedly wrong and always in doubt.

That said, there is something — in this world of investment uncertainty — that I am almost certain about!

The dominance of machines — in which momentum (in both ways) is accentuated by products and strategies that worship at the altar of momentum — is producing many more trading and investment opportunities.

These days, the preponderance of passive investing (over active investing) is often taking selected equities to "artificial levels" with greater frequency.

Arguably, several recent examples of this sort of rapid/random/extreme price movement were seen this week when Palantir (PLTR) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) climbed vertically to new highs — and then over the last two trading days have fallen back badly (despite a modest drop in the overall market).

The positive about this is that if one is bold and has a sense of a company's "intrinsic value" one can capitalize (long AND short).

However, this sort of opportunistic trading/investing requires one to be dispassionate. It also means, that "fighting" the temporary and often short-lived price momentum in sectors and in individual stocks requires an "averaging in" strategy (something I have been discussing this week in the Comments Section of my Diary).

It also means that sector rotation could become more rapid and extreme.

By Doug Kass Feb 21, 2025 9:30 AM EST

Position: None

With S&P cash -120 handles I have purchased the following:

* GOOGL $163.96

* MSFT $380.05

* META $587.95

Covering some Apple AAPL (-$12 ) at $227.15

Investment short ROAD is -$40 from its 52-week high and down by an additional 5% today -- I am covering some under $66.

Investment short BOOT is -$75 from its 52 week high and down by an additional $8 today.

I am covering some under $101 now.

Citi removes 'positive catalyst watch' on Apple AAPL shares Citi analyst Atif Malik removed the firm's "90-day positive catalyst watch" on Apple shares while keeping a Buy rating on the name with a $275 price target. The firm cites a delay in the "much-anticipated" Siri upgrade as part of the iOS 18.4 update in April for the removal. Apple shares are up 1% versus the S&P 500 down 4% since late January, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi lowered its 2025 and 2026 iPhone units estimate to 232M and 244M, respectively, to reflect a delay in the Siri upgrade. While Apple Intelligence utility is different for different people, an upgraded Siri would have driven a higher iPhone refresh this year, the firm contends. However, the firm still thinks Apple is making progress in rolling out Apple Intelligence in China.

Freshpet FRPT price target lowered to $102 from $154 at JPMorgan JPMorgan analyst Ken Goldman lowered the firm's price target on Freshpet to $102 from $154 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While it is "perhaps tempting to become more optimistic at the stock's current price" for investors with longer horizons, the firm doesn't yet see the company as "out of the woods" when it comes to consumption trends and wonders if Street estimates for both Q1 and the next couple years "might be slightly optimistic," the analyst tells investors following a deep dive analysis.

Freshpet price target lowered to $135 from $155 at Stifel Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Freshpet to $135 from $155 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after having hosted meetings with Freshpet's CEO Billy Cyr, CFO Todd Cunfer and VP of IR Rachel Ulsh at the firm's Jackson Hole Consumer Ski Summit. The firm reduced its 2025 sales estimates to the low-end of guidance, but notes that management remains confident that sales growth will accelerate through 2025 as increasing media spending aids household penetration and second half comparisons "favorable."

Freshpet price target lowered to $102 from $154 at JPMorgan JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Freshpet to $102 from $154 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates post the Q4 report. Freshpet is not out of the woods when it comes to consumption trends and Street estimates for both Q1 and the next couple years "might be slightly optimistic," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Occidental OXY downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James Raymond James downgraded Occidental Petroleum to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $64, down from $81. The firm updated the company's estimates to reflect the Q4 report and big drop in oil prices. Occidental's relative share outperformance over the past month and near-term uncertainty on oil prices has the firm taking a slightly more cautious near-term stance on the stock. It cites the significantly weaker oil strip for the target cut.

Bruce Berkowitz, a large shareholder of JOE has recently sold some stock.

My guess is that his fund is having redemptions - but I can't be sure.

Meanwhile, here is a good analysis of the company can be found at https://www.undervalued-shares.com/.

Added to AMZN at $194.17.

Upside:

-RDFN +69% (Rocket Companies to acquire Redfin at $12.50/shr all-stock deal)

-CKPT +66% (Sun Pharmaceuticals to acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics at $4.10/share upfront payment totaling $355M)

-BDRX +49% (US FDA and Gastroenterology and Oncology Divisions believe there is a clear path forward for initiation of eRapa registrational Phase 3 study in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) in U.S. next quarter)

-MLYS +44% (announces Positive Topline Results from Launch-HTN and Advance-HTN Pivotal Trials of Lorundrostat for the Treatment of Uncontrolled or Resistant Hypertension)

-TRVI +41% (Phase 2a RIVER Trial of Haduvio in Patients with Refractory Chronic Cough met primary endpoint)

-BECN +8.6% (QXO and Beacon confirm in discussions about a potential combination in which QXO would acquire Beacon for $124.35/shr in cash, or total consideration of ~$11B)

-RMAX +4.6% (Rocket Companies to acquire Redfin at $12.50/shr all-stock deal)

-NPWR +4.6% (earnings)

-QXO +4.5% (QXO and Beacon confirm in discussions about a potential combination in which QXO would acquire Beacon for $124.35/shr in cash, or total consideration of ~$11B)

-GDOT +4.2% (Board engaged Citi to explore strategic alternatives)

-DASH +3.5% (to be added to S&P500 index)

-CTSH +3.3% (reportedly activist Mantle Ridge has built a $1B stake and is privately engaging with management)

-WLFC +2.2% (earnings)

-EXE +2.0% (to be added to S&P500 index)

Downside:

-RKT -15% (Rocket Companies to acquire Redfin at $12.50/shr all-stock deal)

-AMTM -7.0% (files to sell 19.5M share secondary offering for debt swap)

-NVO -6.8% (disappointment over new-generation shot diabetes trial)

-ARWR -6.1% (ARO-C3 Phase 1/2 study data in Patients with IgA Nephropathy)

-MSTR -5.6% (BTC weakness; Week of Mar 3rd update)

-COIN -5.5% (BTC weakness; plans to hire 1K workers in US this year)

-ALKT -4.4% (files to sell $300M convertible senior note offering)

-PLTR -4.2% (to be added to S&P 100 Index)

-Z -4.1% (Rocket Companies to acquire Redfin at $12.50/shr all-stock deal)

-COHR -3.8% (downside momentum)

-NVT -3.8% (to acquire the Electrical Products Group Business of Avail Infrastructure Solutions for $975M)

-TSLA -3.7% (downside momentum)

-ANGI -3.6% (IAC Board approved planned spin-off of ngi Inc, declared special dividend)

-BNTX -3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-DXCM -3.0% (gets FDA warning letter after facility inspection)

-NOW -2.4% (said to near deal for Moveworks which develops AI-powered assistants that help companies manage employee requests)

-ORCL -2.3% (downside pressure from continued mention as potential TikTok buyer)

-AMAT -2.1% (raises quarterly dividend 15%; announces new $10B share buyback)

-GEO -2.1% (announces modification of ICE contract for Karnes ICE Processing Center to house mixed populations)

Premarket percentage movers at 8:56 a.m.:

The most active premarket ETFs as of 8:34 a.m.:

Fifteen-times more expensive. For this? Does not work. And investors in Open AI (and the others) should be marking down their investments post haste in my view. I cannot imagine any of this is consistent with any investment hypothesis, nor can Meta META giving them the boot be good news either:

OpenAI, in deep trouble by Gary Marcus

I added to my Index trading long rental:

* SPY $568.06

* QQQ $483.88

* Here you go TechNova...

Pretty good stuff from Cliff Asness on Crypto Fort Knox (and DOGE related efforts).

As usual, when it comes to the government, the good thing (drastically reduce the size, scope, and power of the federal government) is being hamstrung by the swamp, and the silly things will somehow continue to happen, and everyone will be left worse off. Some excerpts, full article below:

I’ve been managing money for 33 years now with some modest success. While there are some worthy competitors, it’s hard for me to remember a much worse idea than the U.S. launching a “strategic cryptocurrency reserve.” First, unless you’ve completely drunk the crypto Kool-Aid, it’s about as speculative as you get. Financial economists often quote an asset’s “volatility”—essentially how much its price bounces around. Crypto is at least five times as volatile as a straight up stock market index fund, itself not considered a low-risk investment. To create a sovereign wealth fund dedicated to something five times as volatile as straight up stocks is an awful idea. If we’re going to issue debt to buy super speculative assets that have no use today, have never had a use, but some evangelists claim will solve all of our society's problems, why stop at crypto? How about a strategic Powerball ticket reserve? Finally, and perhaps most obviously (to economists at least), even if crypto is a viable long-term competitor to the U.S. dollar, why on earth would we be promoting this direct competitor to our being the world’s reserve currency, something that conveys upon the United States exorbitant privilege? A “strategic crypto reserve” isn’t far from the president exhorting us to start a “strategic renminbi reserve,” as we hand over those exorbitant advantages to the Chinese. It’s lying back and showing America’s belly to the world in surrender, a surrender that’s unwarranted and at least somewhat suicidal. The Trump administration has embarked on an unprecedented and, I think, broadly popular effort to drastically reduce the size, scope, and power of the federal government. I welcome and support that. The disastrous idea of a “cryptocurrency sovereign wealth fund” goes in exactly the opposite direction. And, if you believe there is a deep state, and I kind of do, why hand them a permanent slush fund? Hopefully the answer is not “Well, it’s currently our deep state, so we like it,” as it won’t be yours tomorrow.

Cliff Asness: The New ‘Crypto Fort Knox’ Is as Dumb as It Sounds

Fascinating from President Trump from a Sunday morning interview today on Fox.

It's the exact opposite of his prior term where he was fixated on the equity markets. It is not just Bessent, they all seem to be leaning the same way. Most did not have this on their bingo cards for 2025:

"I hate to predict things like that," said Trump, when asked if he expected a recession this year. "There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of — it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great. What I have to do is build a strong country," Trump replied. "What I have to do is build a strong country," Trump replied. "You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We go by quarters. And you can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right."

* On cue, the technicians (after the fall) turn bearish...

Bonus: Here are some great links:

Stock Market and Crypto Analysis Stock Market & Crypto Analysis March 7, 2025 - YouTube

Today's Number is 5% The Daily Number 💯 Friday, March 7, 2025

What's Next for the Markets Off the Charts: What is next for European markets - YouTube

A Broadening Top in the US Dollar Is U.S. Dollar Topping Pattern Pointing To Broader Concerns? | Kimble Charting Solutions

Rocks over Stocks Rocks Over Stocks?

From my pal Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro:

* Here is my shocked face...

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved to less oversold to -3.49% from -4.83%.

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are weaker but off their overnight lows as the selloff continues; today there is a global de-risking but let’s see if Int’l Eqys outperform on the move lower or if the US can see a relief rally. Trump declined to rule out a recession due to his policies, pointing to a transition period for the economy. Pre-mkt, Mag7/Semis are weaker, Treasuries are down 4-6bps with the USD flat. In cmdtys, Ags and Energy are mostly in the green and precious is outperforming base as China’s recent data failed to boost base. Today’s macro data focus is on NY Fed’s 1-Year Inflation Expectations.

and...

EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: The SPX fell 3.1% last week before ending the week on a positive note as Powell gave supportive comments on the economy while acknowledging the increased uncertainty due to Trump. This is a market, and an economy, dominated by policy uncertainty and that does not appear to abate until April, at the earliest. Both NDX (-3.2%) and RTY (-4.1%) underperformed as we saw Momentum (-6.8%) and Beta (+3.9%) continue to unwind. The AI theme/ecosystem and Cyclicals are among the most susceptible in this sell-off. Bright spots were found in Aero/Def, HC, Homebuilders, and Staples all adding at least 2% on the week. Crowded Longs (JP9CROW Index) fell 8.8% while Crowded Shorts (JPCROWS Index) declined 32bps. In FICC space, the 10Y yield increased 9.3bps, the USD fell 3.5% (DXY now at 103.84), and were higher on the week despite a selloff in crude, where WTI fell 3.9% to $67.04/bbl. Overall, given the violence of the recent moves it feels like the market is shifting the narrative from one of US Exceptionalism/Goldilocks to one of a lower growth, potentially Recessionary/Stagflationary narrative with International greenshoots.

I am taking a trading long rental in the Indices in early morning trading (5:15 a.m.):

* SPY $570.86

* QQQ $487.00

I also added to AMZN long at $196.84.